فصل اول: قدم زدن در مسیری طولانی به سوی اتاقی در گوشۀ بال غربی

John Bolton, Surrender Is Not an Option: Defending America at the United Nations (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2007).
For those interested, see
See, e.g., Josh Dawsey et al., “Giuliani pulls name from contention for secretary of state,” https://www.politico.com/story/2016/12/giuliani-pulls-name-from-contention-for-secretary-of- state-232439.
Elise Labott, “Donald Trump Told Nikki Haley She Could Speak her Mind. She’s Doing Just That,” https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2017/politics/state/nikki-haley-donald-trump-united- nations/.
Emily Smith, “Trump spent Thanksgiving asking: Mitt or Rudy?”, New York Post, November 27, 2016, https://nypost.com/2016/11/26/trump-spent-thanksgiving-asking-mitt-or-rudy/.
See Gregg Jaffe and Adam Entous, “As a general, Mattis urged action against Iran. Now, as a defense secretary, he may be a voice of caution,” https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/as-a-general-mattis-urged-action- against-iran-as-a-defense-secretary-he-may-be-a-voice-of-caution/2017/01/08/5a196ade-d391- 11e6-a783-cd3fa950f2fd_story.html; Josh Rogin, “Mattis clashing with Trump transition team over Pentagon stafﬁng,” https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/josh- rogin/wp/2017/01/06/mattis-clashing-with-trump-transition-team-over-pentagon-stafﬁng/.
Kenneth Vogel and Josh Dawsey, “CIA freezes out top Flynn aide,” https://www.politico.com/story/2017/02/mike-ﬂynn-nsa-aide-trump-234923.
See Gardiner Harris, “Where Is Rex Tillerson? Top Envoy Keeps Head Down and Travels Light,” https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/15/world/europe/germany-rex-tillerson.html? searchResultPosition=2.
Matt Apuzzo et al., “Trump Told Russians That Firing 'Nut Job’ Comey Eased Pressure From Investigation,” https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/19/us/politics/trump-russia-comey.html.
See “Remarks by President Trump Before a Brieﬁng on the Opioid Crisis,” August 8, 2017, https://www.whitehouse.gov/brieﬁngs-statements/remarks-president-trump-brieﬁng-opioid- crisis/.
See Conor Finnegan, “Tillerson: Americans should 'sleep well at night’ amid N. Korea crisis,” August 9, 2017, https://abcnews.go.com/International/tillerson-americans-sleep-night-amid- korea-crisis/story?id=49111147.
See Peter Baker, “Trump Says Military Is 'Locked and Loaded’ and North Korea Will 'Regret’ Threats, August 11, 2017, https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/11/world/asia/trump-north-korea- locked-and-loaded.html.
See Ben Kesling, “On North Korea, Mattis, Mattis Stresses Diplomacy, But Advises Army to Be Ready,” https://www.wsj.com/articles/on-north-korea-mattis-stresses-diplomacy-but-advises- army-to-be-ready-1507591261.
Shinzo Abe, “Solidarity Against the North Korean Threat,” https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/17/opinion/north-korea-shinzo-abe-japan.html? searchResultPosition=22.
See “Interview with John Dickerson of CBS’s Face the Nation,” September 17, 2017, https://www.state.gov/interview-with-john-dickerson-of-cbss-face-the-nation/.
Jackie Northam, “China Cuts Off Bank Business With North Korea As Trump Announces New Sanctions,” https://www.npr.org/2017/09/21/552708231/china-cuts-off-bank-business-with- north-korea-as-trump-announces-new-sanctions.
John Bolton, “Trump must withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal—now,” https://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/foreign-policy/342237-opinion-trump-must-withdraw-from-iran-nuclear-deal-now.
See Peter Baker, “Trump Recertiﬁes Iran Nuclear Deal, but Only Reluctantly,” https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/17/us/politics/trump-iran-nuclear-deal-recertifyhtml? auth=login-email&login=email&searchResultPosition=1.
See Stephen Hayes and Michael Warren, “Getting to No: How the Trump Administration Decided to Decertify the Iran Nuclear Deal,” https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/weekly- standard/getting-to-no-how-the-trump-administration-decided-to-decertify-the-iran-nuclear-deal- 2009955; and Peter Baker, note 18 above.
See John R. Bolton, “How to Get Out of the Iran Nuclear Deal,” https://www.nationalreview.com/2017/08/iran-nuclear-deal-exit-strategy-john-bolton-memo- trump/.
Omer Carmi, “How Will Iran Prepare for Potential U.S. Withdrawal from the JCPOA?”, https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/how-will-iran-prepare-for-potential- s.-withdrawal-from-the-jcpoa.
John Bolton, “Mr. President, don’t put America at risk with ﬂawed Iran deal,” https://thehill.com/opinion/national-security/354484-john-bolton-mr-president-dont-put-america- at-risk-with-ﬂawed-iran.
See Remarks by President Trump on Iran Strategy, October 13, 2017, https://www.whitehouse.gov/brieﬁngs-statements/remarks-president-trump-iran-strategy/.
See Bolton, Surrender Is Not an Option, especially pp. 233-38.
See David M. Halbﬁnger, “U.S. Funding Cut Reignites Debate on Palestinian Refugee Agency,” https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/17/world/middleeast/palestinian-refugee-agency-unrwa.html? searchResultPosition=2.
See Stephen Farrell, “Israel admits bombing suspected Syrian nuclear reactor in 2007, warns Iran,” https://www.reuters.com/article/us-israel-syria-nuclear/israel-admits-bombing-suspected- syrian-nuclear-reactor-in-2007-warns-iran-idUSKBN1GX09K.
Reuters, “South Korea approves record $2.6 million budget for North Korea’s Olympic visit,” February 13, 2018, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-olympics-2018-northkorea- payment/south-korea-approves-record-2-6-million-budget-for-north-koreans-olympic-visit- idUSKCN1FY094.
See, e.g., Michael Schwirtz, “U.N. Links North Korea to Syria’s Chemical Weapons Program,” https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/27/world/asia/north-korea-syria-chemical-weapons-html.
See Gordon Corera, BBC, “Salisbury poisoning: What did the attack mean for the UK and Russia,” March 4, 2020, https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-51722301.
See “Press Brieﬁng by Principal Deputy Press Secretary Raj Shah,” https://www.whitehouse.gov/brieﬁngs-statements/press-brieﬁng-principal-deputy-press- secretary-raj-shah-03262018/.
Nahal Toosi, “Dunford: Military option for North Korea not 'unimaginable,’” https://www.politico.com/story/2017/07/22/dunford-north-korea-military-option-not- unimaginable-240851.
Dean Acheson, Present at the Creation (New York, W. Norton & Co., 1969), p.88.

فصل دوم: فریاد بزن «امان ندهید!» و سگان جنگ را رها کن

See Ben Hubbard, “Dozens Suffocate in Syria as Government Is Accused of Chemical Attack,” https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/08/world/middleeast/syria-chemical-attack-ghouta.html.
See Sarah Almukhtar, “Most Chemical Attacks in Syria Get Little Attention. Here Are 34 Conﬁrmed Cases.” https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/04/13/world/middleeast/syria- chemical-attacks-maps-history.html?searchResultPosition=2.
See “Statement from Pentagon Spokesman Capt. Jeff Davis on U.S. strike in Syria, April 6, 2017,” https://www.defense.gov/Newsroom/Releases/Release/Article/1144598/statement-from- pentagon-spokesman-capt-jeff-davis-on-us-strike-in-syria/.
See Karen DeYoung and Missy Ryan, “Strike on Assad for use of chemical agents unlikely to advance wider US goals in Syria,” https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national- security/strike-on-assad-for-use-of-chemical-agents-unlikely-to-advance-wider-us-goals-in- syria/2018/04/10/0c5fe3f8-3c0a-11e8-974f-aacd97698cef_story.html.
The White House statement after this call said Trump and Macron had agreed on a “strong, joint ” Monique El-Faizy, “Will Macron Do in Syria What Obama Wouldn’t?” https://www.france24.com/en/20180413-france-will-macron-do-syria-what-obama-would-not- russia-ghouta-chemical-weapons.
Trump raised the possibility of Russian responsibility publicly later in the day: “So if it’s Russia, if it’s Syria, if it’s Iran, if it’s all of them together, we’ll ﬁgure it out and we’ll know the answers quite soon.” “Remarks by President Trump at Cabinet Meeting,” https://www.whitehouse.gov/brieﬁngs-statements/remarks-president-trump-cabinet-meeting-7/.
These sorts of consultations among allies are commonplace, and often acknowledged publicly, as in this case: “British ofﬁcials said Monday they are monitoring the situation in coordination with allies.” Carol Morello, “U.N. to meet on chemical attack in Syria, though Russia is expected to stick up for Assad government,” https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/un-to- meet-on-chemical-attack-in-syria-though-russia-is-expected-to-stick-up-for-assad- government/2018/04/09/f2e18176-3bf4-11e8-a7d1-e4efec6389f0_story.html.
See Catherine Lucey and Jill Colvin, Associated Press, “In run-up to missile strike, an orderly, chaotic White House,” https://www.mcom/ﬂashpoints/2018/04/15/in-run-up-to- missile-strike-an-orderly-chaotic-white-house/; and Dion Nissenbaum, Michael Gordon, and Stacy Meichtry, “U.S. Presses Allies to Back a Military Strike on Syria,” https://www.wsj.com/articles/watchdog-agency-to-investigate-syria-chemical-strike-site- 1523383551?mod=searchresults&page=1&pos=20.
See Associated Press, “Macron: France persuaded Trump to strike in Syria,” https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2018/04/15/macron-france-persuaded-trump-strike- syria/518960002/.
Iran clearly thought Israel had conducted the attack, and was threatening retaliation. See Thomas Erdbrink, “Iran Threatens Israel Over Air Strike in Syria,” https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/10/world/middleeast/iran-israel-missile-syria.html? searchResultPosition=1.
See Peter Baker et al., “Trump Weighs More Robust Military Strike Against Syria,” https://www.nytcom/2018/04/10/us/politics/trump-military-strike-syria.html.
Indeed, May was vigorously criticized by the Opposition for avoiding a vote in the House of Commons, for all the reasons Sedwill explained. See John Rentoul, “Theresa May avoided a vote in parliament on Syrian air strikes because she knew she would lose,” https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/theresa-may-trump-syria-strikes-parliament-vote-britain- russia-chemical-weapons-latest-a8303146.html. Not surprisingly, May’s statement to the Houseof Commons why she did not seek a parliamentary vote defending that decision did not directly address this point. She offered other grounds, including that “it was a decision which required the evaluation of intelligence and information much of which was of a nature that could not be shared with Parliament.” Ibid. See also Alissa J. Rubin and Stephen Castle, “With Eye on Issues at Home, May and Macron Back Trump on Syria Strikes,” https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/14/world/europe/france-britain-syria-strikes.html? searchResultPosition=21.
See Gordon Rayner and Ben Riley-Smith, “Theresa May stands behind Donald Trump on Syria strikes, as Russia warns against 'illegal’ intervention,” https://telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/04/10/theresa-may-joins-donald-trump-emmanuel- macron-condemning-syria/.
Russia said publicly that Israeli F-15’s had ﬁred eight missiles at the base. Israeli ofﬁcials declined public comment, but Israel struck the same base on February 10. See Scott Neuman and Camila Domoneske, “Russia, Syria: Israeli Jets Strike Air Base After Alleged Poison Gas Attack in Douma,” https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2018/04/09/600765750/russia-syria- israeli-jets-strike-air-base-after-alleged-poison-gas-attack-in-dou. The United States denied attacking Tiyas. See “U.S. denies carrying out missile strike in Syria, Russia says Israel did it,” https://cbsnews.com/news/syria-missile-strike-attack-t4-air-base-not-us-retaliation-douma- gas-attack-israel-russia-says/.
Among other public conﬁrmations of the call was one by Vladimir Shamanov, Chairman of the State Duma Defense Committee, and former commander in chief of Russian airborne troops. See “President Erdogan, U.S. counterpart Trump, discuss developments in Syria,” https://www.dailysabah.com/syrian-crisis/2018/04/11/president-erdogan-us-counterpart-trump- discuss-developments-in-syria.
Earlier, Macron had said publicly he would act unilaterally if Syria again used chemical weapons, an assertion reiterated by his Foreign Minister on April 9: “In reference to a warning by President Emmanuel Macron last month that France would strike unilaterally if Syria used chemical weapons again, Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian said that the nation would assume its responsibilities.” Carol Morello and Jenna Johnson, “Trump tweets condemnation of Syria chemical attack, saying Putin shares the blame.” https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/trump-tweets-condemnation-of-syria- chemical-attack-criticizing-putin-for-sharing-the-blame/2018/04/08/c9c1c0e5-d063-4133-ae4d-html.
See Seth J. Frantzman, “Ankara seeks middle path between U.S. and Russia on Syria,” https://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Ankara-seeks-middle-path-between-US-and-Russia-on- Syria-549801.
See Mehmet Celik, “Ankara exerts diplomatic efforts to end US-Russia row in Syria,” https://www.dailysabah.com/diplomacy/2018/04/13/ankara-exerts-diplomatic-efforts-to-end-us- russia-row-in-syria.
See Dan Lamothe et al., “US strikes Syrian military airﬁeld in ﬁrst direct assault on Bashar al- Assad’s government,” https://web.archive.org/web/20170407024143/https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national- security/trump-weighing-military-options-following-chemical-weapons-attack-in- syria/2017/04/06/0c59603a-1ae8-11e7-9887-1a5314b56a08_story.html.
See “Timeline of Syrian Chemical Weapons Activity,” https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/Timeline-of-Syrian-Chemical-Weapons-Activity.
Dunford and Mattis made these points publicly in a brieﬁng right after the retaliation was concluded. See “Mattis, Dunford Detail Attacks on Syrian Chemical Arsenal,” https://www.defense.gov/Explore/News/Article/Article/1493636/mattis-dunford-detail-attacks- on-syrian-chemical-arsenal/.
See “Assad forces emptying airports, bases over possible US strikes, Syrian Observatory says,” https://www.dailysabah.com/syrian-crisis/2018/04/11/assad-forces-emptying-airports-bases-over- possible-us-strikes-syrian-observatory-says.
See comments by LTG Kenneth McKenzie on April 14, cited in Gareth Davies, “Syria ﬁred 40 missiles 'at nothing’ after allied air strikes destroyed three Assad chemical sites,” https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/04/14/russia-claims-ally-syria-shot-71-103-missiles- launched-us-britain/.
See “Readout of President Donald J. Trump’s Call with President Emmanuel Macron of France, April 14, 2018, https://www.whitehouse.gov/brieﬁngs-statements/readout-president-donald-j- trumps-call-president-emmanuel-macron-france-15/.
See Michael R. Gordon, “US Intelligence Finds Syrian Government Conducted Chlorine Rocket Attack in May,” https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-intelligence-ﬁnds-syrian-government- conducted-chlorine-rocket-attack-in-may-11569513600 and Lara Jakes, “US Concludes Syria Used Chemical Weapons in May Attack,” https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/26/world/middleeast/syria-chemical-weapons-us.html.

فصل سوم: آمریکا خلاص می‌شود

Abe had previously argued that “prioritizing diplomacy and emphasizing the importance of dialogue will not work with North Korea” and that “now is the time to exert the utmost pressure on the North.” He wrote expressly that “I ﬁrmly support the United States position that all options are on the table,” using the familiar phrase that includes military force as the unmentioned option. See Shinzo Abe, “Solidarity Against the North Korean Threat,” https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/17/opinion/north-korea-shinzo-abe-japan.html.
See “Treasury Designates Russian Oligarch, Ofﬁcials, and Entities in Response to Worldwide Malign Activity,” https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sm0338.
Many policy commentators shared my skepticism. See, e.g., Derek Grossman, “China’s Reluctance on Sanctions Enforcement in North Korea,” https://www.rand.org/blog/2018/01/chinas-reluctance-on-sanctions-enforcement-in-north.html.
“Trump calls Iran deal 'insane’ in meeting with France’s Macron,” https://www.cnbc.com/video/2018/04/24/trump-calls-iran-deal-insane-in-meeting-with-frances- html.
Macron revealed this to the press on his own a few days See https://www.efe.com/efe/english/world/macron-believes-trump-will-scrap-iran-nuclear- deal/50000262-3596907.
See Peter Baker and Julie Hirschfeld Davis, “Trump Signals Openness to a 'New Deal’ to Constrain Iran,” https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/24/world/europe/trump-macron-iran- clihtml?searchResultPosition=22.
Macron used this very phrase in the joint press conference following the bilateral meeting. See “Remarks by President Trump and President Macron of France in Joint Press Conference,” April 24, 2018, https://www.whitehouse.gov/brieﬁngs-statements/remarks-president-trump-president- macron-france-joint-press-conference/.
Trump made essentially these same points in the joint press conference followed the closed meeting. See n. 7 above (“But we’ll see also, if I do what some people expect, whether or not it will be possible to do a new deal with solid foundations. Because this is a deal with decayed foundations. It’s a bad deal. It’s a bad structure. It’s falling ”).
See, e.g., Caroline Houck, “Trump Calls Europe “as bad as China” on trade,” https://www.vox.com/world/2018/7/1/17522984/europe-china-trade-war-trump, quoting Trump in an interview with Fox News’s Maria
See Julie Hirschfeld Davis, “Trump and Merkel Meet One on One, but Don’t See Eye to Eye,” https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/27/us/politics/trump-merkel.html?searchResultPosition=6.
BBC, “Merkel lobbies Trump on trade and Iran,” https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada- 43925422.
See Judah Ari Gross, “US ofﬁcials say Israel behind latest Syria strike, preparing for war with Iran,” https://www.timesoﬁsrael.com/us-ofﬁcials-say-israel-behind-latest-syria-strike-preparing- for-war-with-iran/, quoting Courtney Kube, “Israel seems to be preparing for war with Iran, S. ofﬁcials say,” May 1, 2018, https://www.nbcnews.com/news/mideast/israel-seems-be-preparing- war-iran-say-u-s-ofﬁcials-n870051.
See, “Readout of President Donald J. Trump’s Call with Prime Minister Theresa May of the United Kingdom,” May 5, 2018. https://www.whitehouse.gov/brieﬁngs-statements/readout- president-donald-j-trumps-call-prime-minister-theresa-may-united-kingdom-7/.
See Boris Johnson, “Don’t Scuttle the Iran Nuclear Deal,” https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/06/opinion/boris-johnson-trump-iran-nuclear-deal.html.
See “Press brieﬁng by National Security Advisor John Bolton on Iran,” May 8, 2018, https://www.whitehouse.gov/brieﬁngs-statements/press-brieﬁng-national-security-advisor-john- bolton-iran/.
See, e.g., Michael Gordon et al., “After Trump’s Threat, White House Convenes a Policy Meeting,” https://www.wsj.com/articles/after-trumps-threat-to-iran-white-house-convenes-a- policy-meeting-1532597520?mod=searchresults&page=1&pos=2.
See Michael Gordon, “White House Blames Iranian-Backed Militias for Attacking U.S. Facilities in Iraq,” September 11, 2018, https://www.wsj.com/articles/white-house-blames- iranian-backed-militias-for-attacking-u-s-facilities-in-iraq-1536707458, quoting White House press secretary Sarah
See, e.g., Editorial Board, “A Swift Iran Decision: Iranian banks have to be expelled from the global ﬁnancing network,” https://www.wsj.com/articles/europes-not-so-swift-diplomacy- 1539730896.

فصل چهارم: فلاخن سنگاپور

See Bolton, Surrender Is Not an Option, especially chapters four and
Winston Churchill, Speech in Parliament, May 2, 1935, quoted in John H. Maurer, “Churchill and the Outbreak of the Second World War in Europe,” Orbis, Summer, 2019, 313.
Gossip to this effect circulated in Seoul after the summit, and I raised the issue with Chung directly, having suspected it myself. Even before traveling to Pyongyang, Chung intimated that US-North Korea talks were part of his mission: “I plan to hold in-depth discussions on various ways to continue talks between not only the South and the North, but also the North and the United States.” See, BBC News, “North Korea’s Kim Jong-un meets South Korea’s envoys,” https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-43282807.
See point ﬁve in the “Joint Statement of the Fourth Round of the Six-Party Talks,” Beijing, September 19, 2005, https://2009-2017.state.gov/p/eap/regional/c15455.htm: “The Six Parties agreed to take coordinated steps to implement the aforementioned consensus in a phased manner in line with the principle of “commitment for commitment, action for ”
The U.S. and Japan subsequently agreed on a one-year dismantlement program. See note 8,
See David French, “A Trip Down Memory Lane: In 2015, the Obama Administration Said the Iran Deal Wasn’t Even a 'Signed Document,’” May 10, 2018, https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/iran-nuclear-deal-not-signed-document-not-binding/.
See, e.g., Shinzo Abe, “Solidarity Against the North Korean Threat,” September 17, 2017, https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/17/opinion/north-korea-shinzo-abe-japan.html..
See Adam Mount and Ankit Panda, “North Korea Is Not Denuclearizing,” https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2018/04/north-korea-kim-jong-un-trump- nuclear-summit-weapons-missiles/558620/; Joby Warrick, “Suspicious factory underscores challenge of verifying North Korea’s nuclear promises,” https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/suspicious-factory-underscores- challenge-of-verifying-north-koreas-nuclear-promises/2018/04/21/fad9764e-457d-11e8-8569- html.
Nicholas Eberstadt, “North Korea’s Phony Peace Ploy,” https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/25/opinion/north-korea-south-korea-peace.html.
Given this relative success on timing, I adopted the Moon-Kim one-year period as an accepted agreement. See, e.g., Hyonhee Shin, “U.S. has plan to dismantle North Korea nuclear program within a year: Bolton,” https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missiles-usa/u-s-has-plan- to-dismantle-north-korea-nuclear-program-within-a-year-bolton-idUSKBN1JR1KP.
Choe Sang-Hun, “North Korea Envoy Hails Bolton’s Ouster and Trump’s Talk of a New Approach,” https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/20/world/asia/north-korea-us-nuclear-talks.html? searchResultPosition=1.
“Remarks by President Trump and Secretary General Stoltenberg of NATO Before Bilateral Meeting,” https://www.whitehouse.gov/brieﬁngs-statements/remarks-president-trump-secretary- general-stoltenberg-nato-bilateral-meeting/.
See Statement of Ambassador John Bolton, reported in “Security Council Condemns Nuclear Test by Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, Unanimously Adopting Resolution 1718 (2006),” https://www.un.org/press/en/2006/sc8853.doc.htm.
Jamie Tarabay, “To experts, North Korea dismantling nuclear site is like destroying evidence,” https://www.cnn.com/2018/05/22/asia/north-korea-destroy-nuclear-site-intl/index.html, quoting Cheryl Rofer: “'If I were going I would want to bring some capability of taking samples, and I would also want to bring a geologist with me. I’d want to have a radiation counter, I would want to go into the tunnel to see if parts of it have caved in in the back, and I would want to take radiation measurements.’ All those samples and tests could yield information on the kinds of weapons that were being tested, she said. 'Isotope measurements could tell you about the design of the device, it would tell you what kind of bombs they’re making, what they’re making them out of, how much uranium and plutonium is in the bombs. We might be able to infer what they’re planning and the shape of their progress,’ she said.”
See Christina Maza, “China Tells Trump to Stay Calm as North Korea Threatens to Cancel Historic Talks,” May 17, 2018, https://www.newsweek.com/china-tells-trump-stay-calm-north- korea-threatens-cancel-historic-talks-931275.
See Joyce Lee and Heekyong Lee, “North Korea won’t hold talks with 'incompetent’ South unless differences settled,” Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missiles- southkorea/north-korea-says-wont-hold-talks-with-incompetent-south-unless-differences-settled- idUSKCN1II0B7.
On Monday, May 8, 2019, discussing trade issues with Bob Lighthizer, I told this anecdote about “breaking up with the girl ﬁrst.” Lighthizer was incredulous, saying “that’s exactly what Trump told me on Friday when I was brieﬁng him on how the negotiations in Beijing had gone!” This was a rare mark of consistency in Trump
See Joshua Berlinger, “North Korea warns of nuclear showdown, calls Pence 'political dummy,’” https://cnn.com/2018/05/23/politics/mike-pence-north-korea-intl/index.html.
See Thomas Maresca and Jane Onyanga-Omara, “South Korean president calls cancellation of Trump-Kim summit 'very regrettable,’” https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2018/05/24/trump-cancels-summit- kim/640452002/.
Japan’s public reaction was restrained and supportive of Trump’s See Reiji Yoshida and Daisuke Kikuchi, “Tokyo shows united front on Trump-Kim summit cancellation, calling for cooperation with U.S. and South Korea,” https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2018/05/25/national/politics-diplomacy/tokyo-understands- trumps-cancelation-u-s-north-korea-summit-ofﬁcials/#.XmEfbKhKiF4.
See “Full address by South Korean President Moon Jae-In on May 26 inter-Korea summit,” May 27, 2018, https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/full-address-by-south-korean-president- moon-jae-in-on-may-26-inter-korea-summit.
See “South Korea’s Moon Jae In might join Trump, Kim in Singapore for 3-way summit: Ofﬁcial,” https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/south-koreas-moon-jae-in-might-join- trump-kim-in-singapore-for-3-way-summit-ofﬁcial.
See “Italy’s Conte wants G8 with Russia, not quick end to sanctions,” June 8, 2018, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-g7-summit-italy/italys-conte-wants-g8-with-russia-not-quick- end-to-sanctions-idUSKCN1J50MV.
There was constant public speculation that China was not enforcing sanctions strictly. See, g., Derek Grossman, “China’s Reluctance on Sanctions Enforcement in North Korea,” https://www.rand.org/blog/2018/01/chinas-reluctance-on-sanctions-enforcement-in-north.html; and “China is quietly relaxing its sanctions against North Korea, complicating matters for Trump,” https://www.latimes.com/business/la-fg-china-north-korea-sanctions-2018-story.html.
See Gardiner Harris and Choe Sang-Hun, “North Korea Criticizes 'Gangster-Like’ U.S. Attitude After Talks with Mike Pompeo,” July 7, 2018, https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/07/world/asia/mike-pompeo-north-korea-pyongyang.html.
See, e.g., Nuclear Threat Initiative, “North Korea,” https://www.nti.org/learn/countries/north- korea/nuclear/.
See https://ustr.gov/trade-agreements/free-trade-agreements/korus-fta/ﬁnal-text.
See “Press Brieﬁng by Press Secretary Sarah Sanders and National Security Ofﬁcials,” August 2, 2018, https://www.whitehouse.gov/brieﬁngs-statements/press-brieﬁng-press-secretary-sarah-sanders-national-security-ofﬁcials-08022018/.
Trump also tweeted later that evening that he was looking forward to seeing Kim. See John Wagner, “Trump says he is looking forward to meeting again 'soon’ with Kim Jong Un,” https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-says-he-is-looking-forward-to-meeting-again- soon-with-kim-jong-un/2018/08/02/7084654e-963b-11e8-a679-b09212fb69c2_story.html.
See “Press Brieﬁng by Press Secretary Sarah Sanders and CEA Chairman Kevin Hassett,” https://www.whitehouse.gov/brieﬁngs-statements/press-brieﬁng-press-secretary-sarah-sanders- cea-chairman-kevin-hassett-091018/.

فصل پنجم: داستان سه شهر: نشست‌های بروکسل، لندن، و هلسینکی

My earlier encounters with Putin are described in Surrender Is Not an Option, especially chapter three.
See Jeffrey Goldberg, “The Obama Doctrine,” https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2016/04/the-obama-doctrine/471525/; Mark Landler, “Obama Criticizes the 'Free Riders’ Among America’s Allies,” https://nytimes.com/2016/03/10/world/middleeast/obama-criticizes-the-free-riders-among- americas-allies.html.
See Susan B. Glasser, “Trump National Security Team Blindsided by NATO Speech,” https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/06/05/trump-nato-speech-national-security-team- 215227.
Nicholas Fiorenza, “Allies agree to reduce US contributions to NATO common funding,” https://www.janes.com/article/92915/allies-agree-to-reduce-us-contributions-to-nato-common- funding.
See Veronica Stracqualursi, “Trump says Putin meeting “may be the easiest of them all,” https://www.cnn.com/2018/07/10/politics/trump-putin-meeting/index.html.
See “Remarks by President Trump and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg at Bilateral Breakfast,” July 11, 2018, https://www.whitehouse.gov/brieﬁngs-statements/remarks-president- trump-nato-secretary-general-jens-stoltenberg-bilateral-breakfast/.
Merkel was repeating what she had said earlier on entering the NATO headquarters, having obviously heard about the Stoltenberg-Trump breakfast. See Steve Erlanger and Julie Hirschfeld Davis, “Trump versus Merkel: Blistering Salvo Meets Quiet Rejoinder,” https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/11/world/europe/germany-merkel-russia-trump-nato.html.
These were all remarks Trump had earlier said publicly. See
See “Statement from the Press Secretary on the Expulsion of Russian Intelligence Ofﬁcers,” March 26, 2018, https://www.whitehouse.gov/brieﬁngs-statementsstatement-press-secretary- expulsion-russian-intelligence-ofﬁcers/.
See Mark Mazzetti et al., “12 Russian Agents Indicted in Mueller Investigation,” https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/13/us/politics/mueller-indictment-russian-intelligence- html.
See “Remarks by President Trump and Prime Minister May of the United Kingdom in Joint Press Conference,” July 13, 2018, https://www.whitehouse.gov/brieﬁngs-statements/remarks- president-trump-prime-minister-may-united-kingdom-joint-press-conference/.
See “Fearing Russian aggression, Finland tells 900K military reservists to be prepared 'in the event of war,’” https://nationalpost.com/news/world/fearing-russian-aggression-ﬁnland-tells- 900k-military-reservists-to-be-prepared-in-the-event-of-war, which cites a ﬁgure of 285,000 army
All attributed comments to the two Presidents in this and the following paragraphs are from “Remarks by President Trump and President Putin of the Russian Federation in Joint Press Conference,” July 16, 2018, https://www.whitehouse.gov/brieﬁngs-statements/remarks- president-trump-president-putin-russian-federation-joint-press-conference/.

فصل ششم: ناکام گذاشتن روسیه

See “New START: Treaty Text,” https://2009-2017.state.gov/t/avc/newstart/c44126.htm.
See “Remarks by President Trump Before Marine One Departure,” https://www.whitehouse.gov/brieﬁngs-statements/remarks-president-trump-marine-one- departure-18/.
See Reuters, “Bolton says we’re a long way from deploying U.S. missiles in Europe,” October 23, 2018, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-nuclear-bolton-inf/bolton-says-were-a-long- way-from-deploying-u-s-missiles-in-europe-idUSKCN1MX2L9.
See Deutsche Welle, “INF: Vladimir Putin Threatens to mirror US deployment of nuclear missiles in Europe,” October 24, 2018, https://www.dw.com/en/inf-vladimir-putin-threatens-to- mirror-us-deployment-of-nuclear-missiles-in-europe/a-46031790.
See U.S. Department of Defense, “Nuclear Posture Review,” 2018, https://media.defense.gov/2018/Feb/02/2001872886/-1/-1/1/2018-NUCLEAR-POSTURE- REVIEW-FINAL-REPORT.PDF, at pp. 9 and
See Bolton, Surrender Is Not an Option, pp.87-92,
See Aaron Mehta, “US, Russia remain at 'impasse’ over Open Skies treaty ﬂights,” https://www.defensenews.com/air/2018/09/14/us-russia-remain-at-impasse-over-nuclear-treaty- ﬂights/.
Aric Jenkins, “Why Russia Was Allowed to Fly a Surveillance Plane Over the Capitol and the Pentagon,” https://time.com/4895574/open-skies-treaty-russia-surveillance-plane/.
Julian Borger, “Trump administration determined to exit treaty reducing risk of war,” April 5, 2020, https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/apr/05/trump-administration-treaty-war- russia-withdraw.
See Curtis A. Bradley, “Unratiﬁed Treaties, Domestic Politics, and the US Constitution,” 48 Harvard International Law Journal 307 (Number 2, Summer, 2007), https://law.duke.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2517&context=faculty_scholarship.
The story of how we unsigned the ICC is told brieﬂy in Surrender Is Not an Option, pp. 85-87. 12 See John Bolton, “Vladimir Putin looked Trump in the eye and lied to him. We negotiate with Russia at our peril,” at https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/07/10/vladimir-putin-looked- trump-eye-lied-negotiate-russia-peril/.
David Filipov et al., “Putin denies election hacking after Trump pressed him, Tillerson says,” https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/heres-whats-at-stake-whentrump-ﬁnally-meets- putin/2017/07/07/a5c577d2-627c-11e7-80a2-8c226031ac3f_story.html.
See “National Cyber Strategy of the United States of America,” September, 2018, https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/National-Cyber-Strategy.pdf, 1-2 and throughout.
Jacqueline Thomsen, “US to prioritize attacks against foreign adversaries under new cyber strategy,” https://thehill.com/policy/cybersecurity/407670-us-to-launch-offensive-attacks- against-foreign-adversaries-under-new.
Justin Lynch, “Trump’s national cyber strategy praised by experts,” https://www.ﬁfthdomain.com/congress/policy/2018/09/21/trumps-national-cyber-strategy- praised-by-experts/.
See “Executive Order on Imposing Sanctions in the Event of Foreign Interference in a United States Election,” September 12, 2018, https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential- actions/executive-order-imposing-certain-sanctions-event-foreign-interference-united-states- election/.
See, e.g., Eric Geller, “Trump silent as top ofﬁcials warn of Russia threat,” https://www.politico.com/story/2018/08/02/trump-russian-election-hacking-720428.
See end note 9, chapter
See Ivan Gutterman et al., “A Timeline of All Russia-Related Sanctions,” https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-sanctions-timeline/29477179.html.
Ellen Nakashima and Paul Sonne, “Bolton says US is conducting 'offensive cyber’ action to thwart would-be election disrupters,” https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national- security/bolton-acknowledges-us-has-taken-action-to-thwart-would-be-election- disrupters/2018/10/31/0c5dfa64-dd3d-11e8-85df-7a6b4d25cfbb_story.html.
Darwin McDaniel, “Nakasone: 2018 Midterm Elections a Success in Feds’ Cyber Efforts,” https://executivegov.com/2019/01/nakasone-2018-midterm-elections-a-success-in-feds- cyber-efforts/.

فصل هفتم: ترامپ دنبال دروازۀ سوریه و افغانستان می‌گردد، اما نمی‌تواند آن را پیدا کند!

See Greg Farrell and Christian Bertelsen, “Turkey’s Halkbank Could Suffer from Ex-Banker’s US Conviction,” https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-04/turkey-s-halkbank- could-suffer-from-ex-banker-s-u-s-conviction, and Amanda Sloat, “Why Turkey cares about the trial of Reza Zarrab,” https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2017/11/22/why-turkey- cares-about-the-trial-of-reza-zarrab/.
See “A court case in New York rattles Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan,” https://www.economist.com/europe/2017/12/09./a-court-case-in-new-york-rattles-turkeys- president-recep-tayyip-erdogan.
See “Andrew Brunson: US hits Turkey with sanctions over jailed pastor,” https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-45036378.
See Zeynep Bilginsoy, “Turkey slaps sanctions on 2 US ofﬁcials in retaliation,” https://www.apncom/4d47a56373e64669b80a3a14f87c0be2.
“Turkey expects no ﬁne for Halkbank: ﬁnance minister,” https://www.reuters.com/article/us- turkey-currency-albayrak-usa/turkey-expects-no-ﬁne-for-halkbank-ﬁnance-minister- idUSKCN1LJ0L6.
See Jack Ewing and Carlotta Gall, “Qatar Comes to Aid of Turkey, Offering $15 Billion Lifeline,” https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/15/world/europe/turkey-andrew-brunson- tariffs.html.
See Carlotta Gall, “Turkey Frees Pastor Andrew Brunson, Easing Tensions With US,” https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/12/world/europe/turkey-us-pastor-andrew-brunson.html.
See, e.g., Atlantic Council, “The sticky situation of the ﬁnal Idlib offensive,” August 15, 2018, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/syriasource/the-sticky-situation-of-the-ﬁnal-idlib- offensive/.
See, e.g., “Israel says it launched 200 strikes in Syria since 2017,” September 5, 2018, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/09/israel-launched-200-strikes-syria-2017- 180905063755959.html.
See Barbara Starr et al., “Syria accidentally shot down a Russian military plane,” https://www.cnn.com/2018/09/17/politics/syrian-regime-shoots-down-russian-plane/index.html.
See Jonathan Marcus, “Is Russia taking control of Syria’s air defenses?”, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-45625388.
See, e.g., Michael Knights, Washington Institute, “Responding to Iranian Harassment of U.S. Facilities in Iraq,” https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/responding-to- iranian-harassment-of-u.s.-facilities-in-iraq; Al Jaazeera, “Rockets hit Iranian Kurdish opposition ofﬁce’s in Iraq’s Koya,” September 8, 2018, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/09/rockets- hit-iranian-kurdish-opposition-ofﬁces-iraq-koya-180908090605503.html; and Edward Wong, “Blaming Iran, U.S. Evacuates Consulate in Southern Iraq,” https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/28/world/middleeast/iraq-iran-consulate-basra-closed.html.
See Edward Wong, note 12,
See Glenn Harlan Reynolds, “Turkey’s new sultan,” July 20, 2016, https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2016/07/20/turkey-coup-islam-erdogan-sharia-sultan- caliphate-crackdown-democracy-column/87344676/.
The December 14 call is noted at p. 138 in https://www.govtinfo.gov/content/pkg/DCPD- 2018DIGEST/pdf/DCPD-2018DIGEST.pdf. See also Barbara Starr et al., “Trump orders rapid withdrawal from Syria in apparent reversal,” https://www.cnn.com/2018/12/19/politics/us-syria- withdrawal/index.html; and Karen DeYoung, “Trump Administration tries to head off Turkish assault on Kurds in Syria,” December 14, 2018, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/trump-administration-tries-to-head-off- turkish-assault-on-kurds-in-syria/2018/12/14/6d614120-ffe5-11e8-ad40- cdfd0e0dd65a_story.html.
See Mark Landler et al., “Trump to Withdraw US Forces From Syria, Declaring 'We Have Won Against ISIS,’” https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/19/us/politics/trump-syria-turkey-troop-html.
See p. 140 at https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/DPCD-2018DIGEST/pdf/DPCD- 2018DIGEST.pdf.
See “Remarks by President Trump to Troops at Al Asad Air Base, Al Anbar Province, Iraq,” December 26, 2018, https://www.whitehouse.gov/brieﬁngs-statements/remarks-president-trump- troops-al-asad-air-base-al-anbar-province-iraq/.
See Zeke Miller and Lolita C. Baldor, “US pushes NATO allies to join observer force in Syria,” https://apnews.com/1fa36d41b686410e84bfc986c9f56337.
See Bolton, Surrender Is Not an Option, throughout, on this
See David A. Sanger, “Bolton Puts Conditions on Syria Withdrawal, Suggesting a Delay of Months or Years,” https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/06/world/middleeast/bolton-syria-html.
See “Remarks by President Trump Before Marine One Departure” January 6, 2019, https://www.whitehouse.gov/brieﬁngs-statements/remarks-president-trump-marine-one- departure-29/.
See note 21
See Associated Press, “Turkey slams Pompeo comments on 'slaughtering’ Kurds,” January 4, 2019, https://apnews.com/27fa54d76e8d4fa79453430f9e2b57ae.
Missy Ryan and Karen DeYoung, “'No different from my original statements’: Trump denies changes to Syria exit plan,” https://www.washingonpost.com/world/national-security/no- different-from-my-original-statements-trump-denies-changes-to-syria-exit- plan/2019/01/07/d93922f2-128f-11e9-90a8-136fa44b80ba_story.html.
Karen DeYoung and Karoun Demirjian, “Contradicting Trump, Bolton says no withdrawal from Syria until ISIS destroyed, Kurds’ safety guaranteed,” https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/no-different-from-my-original- statements-trump-denies-changes-to-syria-exit-plan/2019/01/07/d93922f2-128f-11e9-90a8-html.
See Australian Broadcasting Corporation, “Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan says 'no concession’ for Syrian Kurds, snubbing US plea,” January 8, 2019, https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-01-09/turkey-rejects-us-request-to-protect-us-kurdish-allies- in-syria/10700680.
See Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, “White House Now Says 400 'Peacekeepers’ To Remain In Syria, Up From 200,” February 23, 2019, https://www.rferl.org/a/us-keeping-peacekeepers- syria-pullout-kurds-russia-iran-turkey/29786293.html.
See Zachary Cohen, “Inside the dramatic US military raid that killed ISIS leader Baghdadi,” https://www.cnn.com/2019/10/27/politics/bagdhadi-inside-the-raid-timeline/index.html.
See Eliza Relman, “Defense Secretary Mattis reportedly wasn’t consulted before the military dropped the 'mother of all bombs,’” https://www.businessinsider.com/mattis-mother-of-all- bombs-2017-5.
See Julie Turkewitz, “Brent Taylor, Utah Major Killed in Afghanistan, Was on 4th Deployment,” November 4, 2018, https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/04/us/utah-mayor-killed-afghanistan- brent-thtml.
The concept of a “counter-terrorism platform” in Afghanistan, to be sure going through many variations, had long been under discussion. See, e.g., Andrew deGrandpre, “Before there’s another surge in Afghanistan, Mattis and his general need to meet,” https://www.militarytimes.com/news/your-military/2017/02/11/before-there-s-another-surge-in- afghanistan-mattis-and-his-general-need-to-meet/.
See Mujib Mashal, “U.S. and Taliban Agree in Principle to Peace Framework, Envoy Says,” January 28, 2019, https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/28/world/asia/taliban-peace-deal-html.
See “President Donald J. Trump’s State of the Union Address,” February 5, 2019, https://www.whitehouse.gov/brieﬁngs-statements/president-donald-j-trumps-state-union-address- 2/.

فصل هشتم: آنجا که آشوب، سبک زندگی باشد

John H. Sununu, The Quiet Man: The Indispensable Presidency of George W. Bush (New York: Broadside Books, 2015).
See Jeane J. Kirkpatrick, “Dictatorships and Double Standards,” https://commentarymagazine.com/articles/dictatorships-double-standards/.
See Helene Cooper, “Fraying Ties With Trump Put Jim Mattis’s Fate in Doubt,” posted at https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/15/us/politics/jim-mattis-trump-defense-relationship.html.
See Ashley Parker and Phillip Rucker, “'A rising star’: Haley poses a potential threat to Trump even if she doesn’t run in 2020,” https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/a-rising-star-haley- poses-a-potential-threat-to-trump-even-if-she-doesnt-run-in-2020/2018/10/09/bca850d8-cbd9- 11e8-920f-dd52e1ae4570_story.html.
See Christina Zhao, “Nikki Haley Denies 'False Rumors’ of a Possible Trump/Haley 2020 Ticket: Pence 'Has My Complete Support,’” https://www.newsweek.com/nikki-haley-denies- false-rumors-possible-trump-haley-2020-ticket-pence-has-my-complete-1455584.
See, g., BBC, “France’s Macron pushes for 'true European army.’” November 6, 2018, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-46108633.
See Scott McDonald, “John Kelly’s 'Yes Man’ Comments on Trump Ripped Through Social Media,” https://www.newsweek.com/john-kellys-yes-man-comments-trump-ripped-through- social-media-1467986.
See Caroline Kelly et al., “White House: John Kelly 'was totally unequipped to handle the genius of our great President,” https://www.cnn.com/2019/10/26/politics/john-kelly-trump-yes- man/index.html.
See Rachel Frazin, “Grisham: John Kelly ill-equipped to work with 'the genius of our great president,’” https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/467602-grisham-john-kelly-ill- equipped-to-work-with-the-genius-of-the.

فصل نهم: ونزوئلای آزاد

See, e.g., the interview with Elliott Abrams, the State Department’s point person on Venezuela, in David Luhnow and José de Córdoba, “Venezuela’s Government Held Talks With Government on Ousting Maduro,” May 1, 2019, https://www.wsj.com/articles/venezuelas-opposition-held- talks-with-government-on-ousting-maduro-11556767656.
See New York Times, “Trump Alarms Venezuela With Talk of a 'Military Option,’” August 12, 2017, https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/12/world/americas/trump-venezuela-military.html and Christopher Woody, “Trump: 'I’m not going to rule out a military option’ for Venezuela, August 11, 2017, https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-im-not-going-to-rule-out-a-military-option- for-venezuela-2017-8.
See Siobhán O’Grady, “As Maduro clashes with opposition, Washington engages in 'careful little dance’ with Venezuela,” January 12, 2019, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2019/01/12/maduro-clashes-with-opposition- washington-engages-careful-little-dance-with-venezuela/.
State Department spokesman Robert Palladino said, “It is time to begin the orderly transition to a new government. We support the National Assembly’s call for all Venezuelans to work together, peacefully, to restore constitutional government and build a better future.”
See Ana Vanessa Herrero, “Venezuela Opposition Leader Is Arrested After Proposing to Take Power,” January 13, 2019, https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/13/world/americas/venezeula- juan-guaido-arrest.html.
Indeed, confusion within Maduro’s regime, see ibid., was one indication that outside forces might have been at work. The Cuban presence in Venezuela, and particularly the key role they play in keeping the Maduro regime in place, is amply documented. Predictably, Cuba denies everything. See, e.g., Ethan Bronner, Alex Vasquez, and David Wainer, “How Has Maduro Survived? With Lots of Help from Cuban Operatives,” April 1, 2019, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-01/how-has-maduro-survived-with-lots-of- help-from-cuban-operatives; Jorge C. Carrasco, “Venezuelan Democracy Was Strangled by Cuba,” May 14, 2019, https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/05/14/venezuelan-democracy-was- strangled-by-cuba/; “https://www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/author/josemiguel/” Jose Miguel Alonso-Trabanco, “Cuba’s intelligence Masterstroke in Venezuela,” August 9, 2018, https://www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/cubas-intelligence-masterstroke-in-venezuela/; and Adam Taylor, “How many Cuban troops are there in Venezuela? The U.S. says over 20,000. Cuba says ” May 2, 2019, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2019/05/02/how-many-cuban- troops-are-there-venezuela-us-says-over-cuba-says-zero/.
See Jennifer Hansler, Flora Charner and Zachary Cohen, “US orders non-emergency personnel out of Venezuela,” January 25, 2019, https://www.cnn.com/2019/01/24/politics/pompeo-bolton- venezuela-maduro/index.html.
See Associated Press, “The Latest: Venezuela opposition leader backs US sanctions,” January 29, 2019, https://apnews.com/aea46490266049c6a20a6aba29efc2ca.
See Nick Paton Walsh, Natalie Gallón, and Diana Castrillon, “Corruption in Venezuela has created a cocaine superhighway to the US,” April 17, 2019, https://www.cnn.com/2019/04/17/americas/venezuela-drug-cocaine-trafﬁcking-intl/index.html.
See “Remarks by President Trump and President Duqué of Colombia Before Bilateral Meeting,” September 25, 2018, https://www.whitehouse.gov/brieﬁngs-statements/remarks-president-trump- president-duque-republic-colombia-bilateral-meetings/.
This was exactly what we were saying publicly throughout the crisis, at Trump’s See, e.g., John Allen, “Bolton: All options are on the table for Trump in Venezuela,” January 28, 2019, https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/bolton-all-options-are-table-trump-venezuela-n963681; and Ellen Mitchell, “Bolton says 'all options are on the table’ in Venezuela as protests intensify,” April 30, 2019, https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/441426- bolton-says-all-options-are-on-the-table-in-venezuela-as-protests
See Mary Beth Sheridan, “Maduro’s muscle: Politically backed motorcycle gangs known as 'colectivos’ are the enforcers for Venezuela’s authoritarian leader,” March 14, 2019, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/maduros-muscle-politically-backed- motorcycle-gangs-known-as-colectivos-are-the-enforcers-for-venezuelas-authoritarian- leader/2019/03/13/2242068c-4452-11e9-94ab-d2dda3c0df52_story.html.
Reuters reported that “Private military contractors who do secret missions for Russia ﬂew into Venezuela in the past few days to beef up security for President Nicolas Maduro in the face of US-backed opposition protests, according to two people close to them.” See Maria Tsvetkova and Anton Zverev, Reuters, “Exclusive: Kremlin-linked contractors help guard Venezuela’s Maduro—Sources,” January 25, 2019, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics- russia-exclusive/exclusive-kremlin-linked-contractors-help-guard-venezuelas-maduro-sources- idUSKCN1PJ22M.
See Jessica Donati, Ian Talley and Andrew Scurria, “Venezuela’s Opposition Leader Guaidó to Name New Citgo Board, Rubio Says,” February 6, 2019, https://www.wsj.com/articles/venezuelas-opposition-leader-guaido-to-name-new-citgo-board- sen-rubio-says-11549501327.
See Keith Johnson, “Kerry Makes It Ofﬁcial: 'Era of Monroe Doctrine Is Over,’” November 18, 2013, https://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2013/11/18/kerry-makes-it-ofﬁcial-era-of-monroe- doctrine-is-over/.
See “Statement from President Donald J. Trump Recognizing Venezuelan National Assembly President Juan Gaidó as the Interim President of Vene-zuela,” January 23, 2019, https://www.whitehouse.gov/brieﬁngs-statements/statement-president-donald-j-trump- recognizing-venezuelan-national-assembly-president-juan-guaido-interim-president-venezuela/.
See Deutsche Welle, “Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaidó declares himself acting president,” January 23, 2019, https://www.dw.com/en/venezuelan-opposition-leader-juan-guaido- declares-himself-acting-president/a-47201512.
See BBC News, April 1, 2019, “Venezuela crisis: Opposition’s Guaidó awaits army support,” https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-47769121.
See, e.g., Patricia Laya, Ethan Bronner, and Tim Ross, January 25, 2019, “Maduro Stymied in Bid to Pull $1.2 Billion of Gold From U.K.,” https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019- 01-25/u-k-said-to-deny-maduro-s-bid-to-pull-1-2-billion-of-gold.
See Hollie McKay, “As Venezuela crisis deepens, US embassy faces security challenges,” January 26, 2019, https://www.foxnews.com/world/venezuela-political-aggression-puts-us- diplomats-at-risk.
See, e.g., Reuters, “Venezuela’s Guaidó considering request for funds from IMF: sources,” January 25, 2019, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-guaido/venezuelas- guaido-considering-request-for-funds-from-imf-sources-idUSKCN1PJ21Q, and Lesley Reuters, “Latam lender replaces Venezuela’s Maduro representative with Guaidó economist,” March 15, 2019, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics/iadb-ousts- venezuelas-maduro-representative-replaces-with-guaido-economist-idUSKCN1QW29J.
See Kirk Semple, “With Spies and Other Operatives, a Nation Looms Over Venezuela’s Crisis: Cuba,” January 26, 2019, Editorial Board of the Wall Street Journal, “Cuba out of Venezuela,” January 24, 2019, https://www.wsj.com/articles/cuba-out-of-venezuela-11548376414.
See Daniel Chang, “'End this nightmare,’ Pompeo urges U.N. member nations on Venezuela’s political crisis,” https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation- world/world/americas/venezuela/article225107520.html.
See Adry Torres, “Venezuelan President Maduro’s right-hand man evacuates his two youngest children to China under fake names,” February 25, 2019, https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6743013/Venezuelas-second-command-ﬂies-two- children-China-using-wifes-surname.html.
A subsequent press statement from Sanders and Trump tweets essentially repeated the highlights of this call. See, Rebecca Morin, “Trump congratulates Venezuelan opposition leader in call,” January 30, 2019, https://www.policom/story/2019/01/30/trump-juan-guaido-call-1136918.
See Reuters, “Trading arm of Russia’s Lukoil stops swap operations in Venezuela,” February 14, 2019, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-russia-lukoil/trading-arm-of-russias- lukoil-stops-swap-operations-in-venezuela-idUSKCN1Q3225.
See “PetroChina Drops Venezuela’s State oil Company,” February 1, 2019, https://ﬁnancialtribune.com/articles/energy/96482/petrochina-drops-venezuela-s-state-oil- company.
See Tatiana Voronova, “Russia’s Gazprombank freezes accounts of Venezuela’s PDVSA: Source,” February 17, 2019, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics- gazprombank/russias-gazprombank-freezes-accounts-of-venezuelas-pdvsa-source- idUSKCN1Q60BK.
See Christine Armario and Fabiola Sanchez, “Venezuela opposition leader to police: Leave my family alone,” January 31, 2019, https://apnews.com/c6916be2bce147e486e8e7915272077c.
See Dylan Baddour and Anthony Faiola, “As U.S. amasses aid on Venezuelan border, Colombian town braces for showdown,” February 17, 2019, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/as-us-amasses-aid-on-venezuelan-border- colombian-city-braces-for-showdown/2019/02/17/7bcf57b0-3140-11e9-8781- 763619html.
See “'John Bolton tried to assassinate me’: Interview with Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro,” https://thegrayzone.com/2019/08/06/interview-venezuelan-president-nicolas-maduro/.
See Roberta Rampton, “Move Over Ayatollahs: Bolton Turns Tweets and Talons on Maduro,” February 27, 2019, https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2019-02-27/move-over- ayatollahs-bolton-turns-tweets-and-talons-on-maduro.
See Alex Daugherty, “Rubio says sanctioned Maduro loyalists can receive amnesty, but only if they act soon,” February 11, 2019, https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation- world/world/americas/venezuela/article226085225.html.
Press reporting from these remote border areas was scanty, but clearly showed clashes with regime authorities. See Antonio Maria Delgado, “Two dead, fourteen injured after Venezuela soldiers ﬁre at civilians near border with Brazil,” February 22, 2019, https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation- world/world/americas/venezuela/article226624859.html.
See, e.g., AFP, “Guaidó arrives at border concert, dealing blow to Maduro,” February 23, 2019, https://www.france24.com/en/20190223-venezuela-guaido-border-concert-humanitarian-aid- maduro.
See, e.g., Beatrice Christofaro, “567 Venezuelan soldiers defected to Colombia, and it could be a sign that Maduro’s once rock-solid power base is starting to crumble,” March 2, 2019, https://www.businessinsider.com/venezuela-soldiers-defect-to-colombia-threaten-maduro-power- 2019-3.
See Maria Ramirez, “Soldiers held hostage, villagers killed: the untold story of Venezuelan aid violence,” May 21, 2019, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-pemon- insight/soldiers-held-hostage-villagers-killed-the-untold-story-of-venezuelan-aid-violence- idUSKCN1SR1L0.
See note 36
See Jeff Mason, Reuters, “U.S. considers sanctions to restrict Visa, Mastercard in Venezuela: ofﬁcial,” March 14. 2019, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-venezuela-sanctions/u-s- considers-sanctions-to-restrict-visa-mastercard-in-venezuela-ofﬁcial-idUSKCN1QV2VS.
See Reuters, “More than 40 dead, 850 detained in Venezuela violence, U.N. says,” January 29, 2019, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-un/more-than-40-dead-850- detained-in-venezuela-violence-u-n-says-idUSKCN1PN16Y.
See Larry Neumeister, Associated Press, “Ex-Venezuelan vice president accused of aiding drug dealers,” March 8, 2019, https://apnews.com/ff89bf5c8f5445fab11e6fdf6d91640f.
See note 19,
See, e.g., Ryan Berg, “Russia Is Gearing Up for a Conﬂict with the United States in the Caribbean,” October 9, 2019, https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/10/09/russias-putin-venezuela- evade-oil-sanctions-preparing-conﬂict-united-states/; and Joshua Goodman, Associated Press, “Oil tankers 'go dark’ off Venezuela to evade US sanctions,” November 14, 2019, https://apnews.com/84cabe36652c4194ae2db852e8bab2c4.
See Reuters, “Trump threatens 'full’ embargo on Cuba over Venezuela security support,” April 30, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-trump-tweet/trump-threatens-full- embargo-on-cuba-over-venezuela-security-support-idUSKCN1S62PD
See Nicholas Casey, “'It Is Unspeakable’: How Maduro Used Cuban Doctors to Coerce Venezuela Voters,” https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/17/world/americas/venezuela-cuban- doctors.html?auth=login-email&login=email.
See “US-sanctioned Venezuelan defects to Colombia, Slams Maduro,” https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-general/u-s-sanctioned-venezuelan- defects-to-colombia-slams-maduro-idUSKCN1QZ1YB.
See David Luhnow, “Maduro Loses Grip on Venezuela’s Poor, a Vital Source of His power,” https://www.wsj.com/articles/maduro-loses-grip-on-venezuelas-poor-a-vital-source-of-his- power-11553014207.
See Nathan Hodge and Anna-Maja Rappard, CNN, “Russia conﬁrms its military personnel are in Venezuela,” March 29, 2019, https://www.cnn.com/2019/03/28/europe/russia-venezuela- military-personnel-intl/index.html
See “Remarks by President Trump and First Lady Fabiana Rosales of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela before Bilateral Meeting,” March 27, 2019, https://www.whitehouse.gov/brieﬁngs- statements/remarks-president-trump-ﬁrst-lady-fabiana-rosales-bolivarian-republic-venezuela- bilateral-meeting/.
These remarks were very similar to what she had said in the presence of the Ibid.
See “Venezuelan minister tells US’ Bolton 'right thing’ is respecting the people’s will,” March 30, 2019, https://www.dailysabah.com/americas/2019/03/30/venezuelan-minister-tells-us-bolton- right-thing-is-respecting-the-peoples-will.
As documented in previous footnotes, many details of what happened in Venezuela in March and April in particular, described in the following pages, have found their way into the public record. We learned them in real time from the opposition, although as in any domestic conﬂict like this, there are often disagreements on many issues. In addition to what has already been cited above, see, e.g., Nicole Gaouellette, “Bolton says senior Venezuelan ofﬁcials committed to backing Guaidó,” April 30, 2019, https://www.cnn.com/2019/04/30/politics/venezuela-us-clashes- bolton/index.html. The C-SPAN tape of my April 30 interview is found at https://www.c-org/video/?460292-1/national-security-adviser-bolton-calls-peaceful-transfer-power- venezuela. See also the interview with Elliott Abrams in “US: Venezuelan ofﬁcials who were negotiating Maduro exit have gone dark,” May 1, 2019,” “https://www.efe.com/efe/english/world/us-venezuelan-ofﬁcials-who-were-negotiating-maduro- exit-have-gone-dark/50000262-3965957” https://www.efe.com/efe/english/world/us-venezuelan- ofﬁcials-who-were-negotiating-maduro-exit-have-gone-dark/50000262-3965957#; and Uri Freedman, “How an Elaborate Plan to Topple Venezuela’s President Went Wrong,” May 1, 2019, https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2019/05/white-house-venezuela-maduro- failed/588454/.
See John Otis, NPR, “Venezuelan Ofﬁcers Who Fled to Colombia Are 'Adrift’ As Maduro Holds On to Power,” July 22, 2019, https://www.npr.org/2019/07/16/742275893/venezuelan-ofﬁcers- who-ﬂed-to-colombia-are-adrift-as-maduro-holds-onto-power.
See MacKenzie Sigalos, “China and Russia loaned billions to Venezuela— and then the presidency went up for grabs,” February 7, 2019, https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/07/venezuela- china-and-russia-owed-debts-as-presidential-ﬁght-rages.html.
After his defection, Cristopher Figuera became a major public source of information about the Maduro regime, and speciﬁcally about the Cuban presence. See, e.g., Anthony Faiolo, “Maduro’s ex-spy chief lands in U.S. armed with allegations against Venezuelan government,” June 24, 2019, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/maduros-ex-spy-chief-lands-in-us- armed-with-allegations-against-venezuelan-government/2019/06/24/b20ad508-9477-11e9-956a-html. Excerpts from the Washington Post interview with Cristopher Figuera are found at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v= Pk9WS06-g. See also Martin Arostegui, “Exiled Venezuelan Spy Chief Speaks Out About Corruption, Cuban Ties,” https://voanews.com/americas/exiled-venezuelan-spy-chiefs-speak-out-about-corruption-cuban- ties.
See Abrams interview, notes 1 and 52 above, and Freedman, note 52 57
Cristopher Figuera described the dialogue: “On April 29, Figuera said, he learned that Maduro’s feared colectivos were preparing a large-scale assault on a May Day protest that could result in a 'bloodbath.’ He told Padrino of the new timetable 'Are you crazy?’ Padrino responded, in Figuera’s telling. 'What about the [TSJ] ruling? How are you going to do it?’ 'It’s happening,’ Figuera said he responded. 'If not, May 1 will be bloody.… We have to move fast.’ Figuera and other plotters said they received conﬁrmation that Moreno was prepared to issue his ruling on April 30. But after hearing Padrino’s skepticism, Figuera said, he began calling other military ﬁgures.” See Faiola, note 55 above.
See Associated Press, “Venezuela’s Maduro Calls for Military Unity After Clashes,” May 2, 2019, https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2019-05-01/venezuela-awaits-more-protests- after-a-day-of-turmoil.
See note 44
Juan Forero, José de Córdoba and Kejal Vyas, “Venezuela’s Opposition Came Close to Ousting the President—but the Plan Fell Apart,” May 3, 2019, https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-plan- to-oust-venezuelan-leader-fell-apart-115569266837?mod+searchresults&page=3&pos+8.
See, e.g., Antonella Davalos, “Why Is Cuba Propping Up the Maduro Regime? A Look at the History of this Special Relationship,” February 23, 2019, https://www.democracyspeaks.org/blog/why-cuba-propping-maduro-regime-look-history- special-relationship.
On the afternoon of April 30, I tweeted, “@vladimirpadrino, @ivanr_HD, @MaikelMorenoTSJ: You know well the role you played in planning today’s move for democracy in You must now stand and do what is right for Venezuela. We, and the world, will hold you accountable for those Venezuelans who are injured today.” And the next day, in a lengthy radio interview with Hugh Hewitt, I elaborated on the complex dealings between key regime ﬁgures and the opposition before the uprising. See transcript, https://www.hughhewitt.com/ambassador-john- bolton-on-uprising-in-venezuela.

فصل دهم: غرش اژدهای چین

See, e.g., “Whither China: From Membership to Responsibility?” Speech by Robert B. Zoellick, Deputy Secretary of State, found at https://2001- 2009.state.gov/s/d/former/zoellick/rem/53682.htm.
See Remarks by Assistant Secretary Christopher A. Ford, “Huawei and Its Siblings, the Chinese Tech Giants: National Security and Foreign Policy Implications,” September 11, 2019, https://www.state.gov/huawei-and-its-siblings-the-chinese-tech-giants-national-security-and- foreign-policy-implications/.
See, e.g., Kate O’Keefe et al., “China Taps Its Private Sector to Boost Its Military, Raising Alarms,” https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-taps-its-private-sector-to-boost-its-military-raising- alarms-11569403806.
See, e.g., Rachel Botsman, “Big data meets Big Brother as China moves to rate its citizens,” https://www.wired.co.uk/article/chinese-government-social-credit-score-privacy-invasion.
And see “National Security Strategy of the United States of America,” December 2017, https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/NSS-Final-12-18-2017-0905.pdf.
See “A Free and Open Indo-Paciﬁc: Advancing a Shared Vision,” November 3, 2019, https://www.state.gov/a-free-and-open-indo-paciﬁc-advancing-a-shared-vision/.
See Department of Justice, “ZTE Corporation Agrees to Plead Guilty and Pay Over $430.4 Million for Violating U.S. Sanctions by Sending U.S.-Origin Items to Iran,” March 7, 2017, https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/zte-corporation-agrees-plead-guilty-and-pay-over-4304-million- violating-us-sanctions-sending.
See David J. Lynch, “U.S. companies banned from selling to China’s ZTE telecom maker,” April 16, 2018, https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/business/wp/2018/04/16/u-s-companies- banned-from-selling-tochinas-zte-telecom-maker/.
Hassett later stated publicly that “the actions we’ve taken against China have had a big negative effect on their markets and their economy but very little effect… here in the U.S.” See Emily McCormick, “White House economist: Tariffs are hurting China much more than the US,” September 20, 2018, https://www.ﬁnance.yahoo.com/news/white-house-economist-kevin- hassett-need-fair-reciprocal-trade-155519844.html.
See Karen Freifeld, “Exclusive: U.S. may soon claim up to $1.7 billion penalty from China’s ZTE - sources,” June 1, 2018, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-zte- exclusive/exclusive-u-s-may-soon-claim-up-to-1-7-billion-penalty-from-chinas-zte-sources- idUSKCN1IX5T2.
Under the existing judicial rulings orders, the court-appointed monitor will be in place observing ZTE until 2022. See Dan Strumpf, “U.S. Judge Orders China’s ZTE to Two More years of Monitoring,” October 4, 2018, https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-judge-orders-chinas-zte-to-two- more-years-of-monitoring-1538634469.
See “Remarks by President Trump at the United Nations Security Council Brieﬁng on Counterproliferation,” September 26, 2018, https://www.whitehouse.gov/brieﬁngs- statements/remarks-president-trump-united-nations-security-council-brieﬁng- counterproliferation-new-york-ny/.
See “Remarks by Vice President Pence on the Administration’s Policy Toward China,” October 4, 2018, https://www.whitehouse.gov/brieﬁngs-statements/remarks-vice-president-pence- administrations-policy-toward-china/.
This phrase is well-known from the thesis and eponymous title of Michael Pillsbury’s book, The Hundred-Year Marathon: China’s Secret Strategy to Replace America as the Global Superpower, Grifﬁn, reprint edition
See Ana Swanson and Alan Rappeport, “Trump Delays a Tariff Deadline, Citing Progress in China Trade Talks,” February 4, 2019, https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/24/us/politics/us- china-trade-truce.html.
See “Remarks by President Trump and President Xi of the People’s Republic of China Before Bilateral Meeting, Osaka, Japan,” June 19, 2019, https://www.whitehouse.gov/brieﬁngs- statements/remarks-president-trump-president-xi-peoples-republic-china-bilateral-meeting- osaka-japan/.
See note 2
For a classic statement of this utterly misguided thinking, see George Gilder, “Huawei Is an Asset, Not a Threat,” posted at https://www.wsj.com/articles/huawei-is-an-asset-not-a-threat- 11558390913.
The United Kingdom ultimately rejected the U.S. position. See, Adam Satariano, “Britain Deﬁes Trump Plea to Ban Huawei from 5G Network,” January 29, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/28/technology/britain-huawei-5G.html.
See Simon Denyer, “Japan effectively bans Huawei and ZTE from government contracts, joining ,” December 10, 2018, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_paciﬁc/japan- effectively-bans-chinas-huawei-zte-from-government-contracts-joining-us/2018/12/10/748fe98a- fc69-11e8-ba87-8c7facdf6739_story.html; and “Huawei Loses key 5G Contract in Japan to Nokia and Ericsson,” May 31, 2019, https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/huawei-loses- key-5g-contract-in-japan-to-nokia-and-ericsson.

See Anna Fifeld and Jeanne Whalen, “Canadians detained in China after Huawei arrest have now spent a year in custody,” December 10, 2019, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/canadians- detained-in-china-after-huawei-arrest-have-now-spent-a-year-in-custody/2019/12/10/3a55cd4c- 1af0-11ea-977a-15a6710ed6da_story.html.
See Robert Fife and Steven Chase, “Chrétien proposes cancelling Meng’s extradition case to unfreeze relations with China,” October 2, 2019, https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-chretien-suggests-huawei-executives- extradition-case-should-end/.
The Administration has imposed other penalties on ZTE and Huawei since I resigned, but the overall policy direction remains unclear. See, e.g., Ryan Tracy et al., “FCC Targets China’s Huawei and ZTE,” https://www.wsj.com/articles/fcc-moves-to-cut-off-huawei-zte-from- subsidies-11572289868.
See Echo Xie, “Chinese state media warns 'end is coming for those attempting to disrupt Hong Kong,” September 1, 2019, https://www.scmp.com/news/hong- kong/politics/article/3025284/chinese-state-media-warns-end-coming-those-attempting.
Although the House of Representatives has passed a bill authorizing sanctions on China relating to the Uighurs, there is no change in Trump’s opposition to such sanctions. See, Alan Rappeport and Edward Wong, “In Push for Trade Deal, Trump Administration Shelves Sanctions Over China’s Crackdown on Uighurs,” May 4, 2019, https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/04/world/asia/trump-china-uighurs-trade-deal.html.
See John Pomfret, “Trump abandoned the Kurds in Syria. Could Taiwan be next?” https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/10/18/trump-abandoned-kurds-syria-could- taiwan-be-next/.
See, e.g., Josephine Ma, “Coronavirus: China’s ﬁrst conﬁrmed Covid-19 case traced back to November 17,” March 13, 2020, https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3074991/coronavirus-chinas-ﬁrst-conﬁrmed- covid-19-case-traced-back.
See, e.g., Javier C. Hernández, “Chinese Tycoon Who Criticized Xi’s Response to Coronavirus Has Vanished,” March 15, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/14/world/asia/china-ren-html?searchResultPosition=2.
See Guy Taylor, “Surge of coronavirus lies by adversaries seeking to blame the U.S. ﬂoods web,” March 16, 2020, https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/mar/15/coronavirus-lies-pushed- china-blame-virus-us-biowe/; and, Fred Lucas, “Coronavirus Coverup? Trump’s National Security Advisor Puts China On Notice,” March 15, 2020, https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/coronavirus-coverup-trumps-national-security-advisor- puts-china-notice-132497.
See Ivana Kottasová and Paul Murphy, March 13, 2020, “Satellite images show Iran building burial pits for coronavirus victims,” https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/13/middleeast/iran- coronavirus-mass-graves-intl/index.html.
See Fred Imbert, “Larry Kudlow says US has contained the coronavirus and the economy is holding up nicely,” February 26, 2010, https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/25/larry-kudlow-says-us- has-contained-the-coronavirus-and-the-economy-is-holding-up-nicely.html? source=twitter%7Cmain.
See Aram Roston, Marisa Taylor, Reuters, March 11, 2020, “Exclusive: White House told federal health agency to classify coronavirus deliberations-sources,” https://www.reuters.com/article/us- health-coronavirus-secrecy-exclusive/exclusive-white-house-told-federal-health-agency-to- classify-coronavirus-deliberations-sources-idUSKBN20Y2LM.
See Tim Morrison, “No, the White House didn’t 'dissolve’ its pandemic response ofﬁce,” March 16, 2020, https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/03/16/no-white-house-didnt-dissolve- its-pandemic-response-ofﬁce/. Daniel Lippman and Meredith McGraw, “Inside the National Security Council, a rising sense of dread,” April 2, 2020, https://www.polcom/news/2020/04/02/nsc-coronavirus-white-house-162530; and Andrew Kaczynski and Em Steck, “Top administration ofﬁcials said last year threat of pandemic kept them up at night,” April 3, 2020, https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/03/politics/kﬁle-ofﬁcials- worried-over-pandemic-last-year/index.html.
A number of commentators agreed with the reorganization. See, e.g., Tom Rogan, “No, the Trump Administration didn’t weaken US biodefenses,” March 15, 2020, https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/no-the-trump-administration-didnt-weaken-us- biodefenses; and Alexander Muse, March 14, 2020, “Fact check: Did Trump disband the US pandemic response team?” https://partisan.space/pandemic-team/. Fact checkers agreed that the dispute over the reorganization was a matter of opinion, not veriﬁable fact: Glenn Kessler and Meg Kelly, “Was the White House ofﬁce for global pandemics eliminated?” https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/03/20/was-white-house-ofﬁce-global-pandemics- eliminated/, and Lori Robertson, “Dems Misconstrue Trump Budget Remarks,” https://www.factcheck.org/2020/03/dems-misconstrue-trump-budget-remarks/.
See Alex M. Azar II, Robert R. Redﬁeld, and Anthony S. Fauci, “On the Front lines of the Trump Administration’s Ebola Response,” November 4, 2019, https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/11/04/trump-administration-ebola-response-azar-redﬁeld-fauci- congo/.
See “National Biodefense Strategy,” whitehouse.gov/wp- content/uploads/2018/09/National-Biodefense-Strategy.pdf.
See “Presidential memorandum on the Support for National Biodefense,” September 18, 2018, https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/presidential-memorandum-support-national- biodefense/.
See “Executive Order on Modernizing Inﬂuence Vaccines in the United States to promote National Security and public health,” September 19, 2019, https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/executive-order-modernizing-inﬂuenza- vaccines-united-states-promote-national-security-public-health/.
See Eric Lipton, David A. Sanger, Maggie Haberman, Michael D. Shear, Mark Mazzetti, and Julian E. Barnes, “Despite Timely Alerts, Trump Was Slow to Act,” April 12, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/11/us/politics/coronavirus-trump-response.html.
The NSC structure is now analogous to the U.S. Army Medical Research Institute for Infectious Diseases. See, army.mil.

فصل یازدهم: ورود به هتل هیلتون هانوی، خروج از آن و بازی در پانمونجوم

See Choe Sang-Hun, “Kim Jong-un Praises Trump’s 'Unusual Determination’ to Hold Second Summit,” January 23, 2019, https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/23/world/asia/trump-kim-jong- un-summit-korea.html?searchResultPosition=1.
See Gus Taylor, “Team Trump quietly ﬁlling 'pot of gold’ encouraging Kim Jong Un to denuclearize,” posted at https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2019/jan/28/stephen-biegun- preps-north-korea-economic-package-/.
See Stephen Biegun, “Remarks on DPRK at Stanford University,” https://www.state.gov/remarks-on-dprk-at-stanford-university/.
See John Walcott, “'Willful Ignorance.’ Inside President Trump’s Troubled Intelligence Brieﬁngs,” https://time.com/5518947/donald-trump-intelligence-brieﬁngs-national-security/.
All of this was subsequently amply reported in numerous press sources. See, e.g., Adam Taylor, “Nukes and sanctions: What actually went wrong for Trump and Kim Jong Un,” March 1, 2019, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2019/03/01/nukes-sanctions-what-actually-went-wrong- trump-kim-jong-un/.
Trump himself expressly mentioned Yongbyon in subsequent press discussions. See, e.g., Reuters, “Trump says he and North Korea’s Kim discussed dismantling of Yongbyon nuclear plant,” February 28, 2019, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-usa-trump- yongbyon/trump-says-he-and-north-koreas-kim-discussed-dismantling-of-yongbyon-nuclear- plant-idUSKCN1QH0WN.
North Korea itself fully conﬁrmed their version of the offer at a press conference late in the evening after the Summit ended. See, e.g., https://www.scmp.com/author/lee-jeong-ho” Lee Jeong-ho and https://www.scmp.com/author/bhavan-jaipragas” Bhavan Jaipragas, “Trump-Kim Summit 2019: North Korea stages late-night press conference to deny US president’s claims about why summit ended, February 28, 2019, https://www.scmp.com/week- asia/geopolitics/article/2188052/trump-kim-summit-2019-ends-disarray-talks-break-down.
See Hyonhee Shin and Joyce Lee, Reuters, “North Korea executes envoy to failed U.S. summit - media; White House monitoring,” May 30, 2019, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea- usa-purge/north-korea-executes-envoy-to-failed-u-s-summit-media-white-house-monitoring- idUSKCN1T02PD.
“Jackson Diehl@JacksonDiehl, “Looks like @realDonaldTrump's erratic diplomacy, including adopting maximalist Bolton position in Hanoi, got some people ”
See Choe Sang-Hun, “North Korea Threatens to Scuttle Talks with the U.S. and Resume Tests,” March 15, 2019, https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/15/world/asia/north-korea-kim-jong-un-html.
See, e.g., Hiroyuki Akita, “Trump demands Japan and South Korea Pay for nuclear umbrella,” February 4, 2020, https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Comment/Trump-demands-Japan-and-South- Korea-pay-for-nuclear-umbrella.
See, e.g., Joyce Lee, Sangmi Cha, and Hyonhee Shin, Reuters, “US breaks off defense cost talks, as South Korea balks at $5 billion demand,” November 18, 2019, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-southkorea-usa-talks/us-breaks-off-defense-cost-talks-as- south-korea-balks-at-5-billion-demand-idUSKBN1XT0EN.
See Simon Denyer and Moon Joo Kim, “Kim personally supervised 'guided weapons’ test, North Korea says,” May 4, 2019, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/north-korea-ﬁres-several- short-range-projectiles-south-korean-military-says/2019/05/03/511efe92-6e0f-11e9-be3a-html.
See Dagyum Ji, “South Korea to push ahead with delivery of $8 million in aid to North: MOU,” May 17, 2019, https://www.nknews.org/2019/05/south-korea-to-push-ahead-with-delivery-of-8- million-in-aid-to-north-mou/.
See David E. Sanger, William J. Broad, Choe Sang-Hun, and Eileen Sullivan, “New North Korea Concerns Flare, as Trump’s Signature Diplomacy Wilts,” May 9, 2019, https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/09/world/asia/north-korea-missile.html.
See Steven Borowiec, Asia Society, “The Sad but True Story of North Korea’s Abduction Project,” https://asiasociety.org/korea/sad-true-story-north-koreas-abduction-project.
See, e.g., Chad O’Carroll, “Hotline between the two Koreas: why hasn’t it been used yet?” May 10, 2019, https://www.nknews.org/2019/05/hotline-between-the-two-koreas-why-hasnt-it-been- used-yet/.
Michael Crowley and David E. Sanger, “In New Talks, US May Settle for a Nuclear Freeze by North Korea,” https://wnytimes.com/2019/06/30/world/asia/trump-kim-north-korea- negotiations.html.
See, e.g., Rebecca Balhaus et al., “Trump’s Twitter Invitation to Kim Set Off 24-Hour ” https://www.wsj.com/articles/trumps-twitter-invitation-to-kim-set-off-24-hour- scramble-11561943026.
See Straits Times, “North Korea’s Kim Jong-Un receives personal letter from Trump, KCNA says,” June 24, 2019, https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/north-koreas-kim-jong-un- receives-excellent-letter-from-trump-state-media.
See Lara Seligman and Robbie Gramer, “Trump Asks Tokyo to Quadruple Payments for U.S. Troops in Japan,” November 15, 2019, https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/11/15/trump-asks-tokyo- quadruple-payments-us-troops-japan/.
There has been considerable press attention and commentary on this ongoing dispute. See e.g., Kim Tong-hyung, “South Korea Will Keep Its Military Intelligence Pact with Japan - For Now,” November 23, 2019, https://thediplomat.com/2019/11/south-korea-will-keeps-its-military- intelligence-pact-with-japan-for-now/; Simon Denyer and Min Joo Kim, “South Korea axes pact on sharing military intelligence with Japan,” August 22, 2019, https://washingtonpost.com/world/asia_paciﬁc/south-korea-axes-pact-to-share-military- intelligence-with-japan/2019/08/22/fe57061c-c4be-11e9-8bf7-cde2d9e09055_story.html; and Victor Cha, “The Meaning of GSOMIA Termination; Escalation of the Japan-Korea Dispute,” August 22, 2019, https://www.csis.org/analysis/meaning-gsomia-termination-escalation-japan- korea-dispute.
See Treaty between Japan and Republic of Korea, dated June 22, 1965, Number 8473, https://treaties.un.org/doc/Publication/UNTS/Volume%20583/volume-583-I-8473-English.pdf.
See “Sharing military intel with Japan 'difﬁcult,’ Moon tells visiting U.S. defense chief,” November 15, 2019, https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2019/11/15/national/sharing-military- intel-japan-difﬁcult-moon-tells-visiting-u-s-defense-chief/#.XmOlqKhKiF4.

See, e.g., Brian Kim, “Korea and Japan Clash Over History and law,” August 16, 2019, https://www.lawfareblog.com/korea-and-japan-clash-over-history-and-law; Yosuke Onchi and Jada Nagumo, “Five things to know about South Korea’s wartime labor ruling,” October 30, 2018, https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/Five-things-to-know-about-South- Korea-s-wartime-labor-ruling; and Choe Sang-Hun and Rick Gladstone, “How a World War II- Era Reparations Case Is Roiling Asia,” October 30, 2018, https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/30/world/asia/south-korea-japan-compensation-world-war-html.
On November 22, South Korea suspended its withdrawal from GSOMIA. Whether bilateral relations would thereupon improve, or simply remain as they were, was unclear. See, e.g., “Japan-South Korea friction ﬂares again after GSOMIA intel pact rescue,” https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2019/11/25/national/politics-diplomacy/japan-south-korea- bickering-gsomia/#.Xez2X-hKiF4.

فصل دوازدهم: ترامپ ابتدا راهش را گم می‌کند و بعد هم شهامتش را

See Thomas Erdbrink, “'Death to America’ Means 'Death to Trump,’ Iran’s Supreme Leader Says,” https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/08/world/middleeast/iran-trump-death-to-html.
See Alma Keshavarz, “A Review of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards and Qods Force: Growing Global Presence, Links to Cartels, and Mounting Sophisti-cations,” https://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/a-review-of-iran%E2%80%99s-revolutionary-guards-and- qods-force-growing-global-presence-links-to-car.
See, e.g., Tim Arango, “Iran Dominates in Iraq After U.S. 'Handed the Country Over,’” July 15, 2019, https://www.nytcom/2017/07/15/world/middleeast/iran-iraq-iranian-power.html; James Risen, Tim Arango, Farnaz Fassihi, Murtaza Hussain, Ronen Bergman, “A Spy Complex revealed,” November 18, 2019, https://theintercept.com/2019/11/18/iran-iraq-spy-cables/; and NPR, “Iran’s Powerful inﬂuence in Iraq,” January 4, 2020, https://www.npr.org/2020/01/04/793662756/iran-s-powerful-inﬂuence-in-iraq.
; and John Davison and Daphne Psaledakis, “Washington blacklists Iran-backed Iraqi militia leaders over protests,” December 6, 2019, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-usa-iraq- sanctions/washington-blacklists-iran-backed-iraqi-militia-leaders-over-protests- idUSKBN1YA206.
See “Statement from the President on the Designation Of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corp as a Foreign Terrorist Organization,” April 8, 2019, https://www.whitehouse.gov/brieﬁngs- statements/statement-president-designation-islamic-revolutionary-guard-corps-foreign-terrorist- organization/.
“Clientitis” and other institutional problems of State’s bureaucracy are discussed in Boston, Surrender Is Not an Option, on pp. 447-455.
See, e.g., Florence Tan, Reuters, “Iran keeps oil prices in Asia at wide discounts against Saudi oil in January,” December 10, 2019, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-oil-iran-prices/iran-keeps- crude-prices-in-asia-at-wide-discounts-against-saudi-oil-in-january-idUSKBN1OA056 and Irina Slav, “Iran is desperately trying to save its oil share ahead of US sanctions,” August 15, 2018, https://www.businessinsider.com/iran-us-oil-sanctions-drive-barrel-discounts-before-november- 2018-8.
See Lesley Wroughton et al., “US to end all waivers on imports of Iranian oil, crude price jumps,” https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-iran-oil/us-to-end-all-waivers-on-imports-of- iranian-oil-crude-price-jumps-idUSKCN1RX0R1.
See “Zarif: B-Team targeting Iranian people with economic terrorism,” https://en.mehrnews.com/news/144632/Zarif-B-Team-targeting-Iranian-people-with-economic- terrorism.
See, e.g., Ariane Tabatabai, “Iran’s cooperation with the Taliban could affect talks on U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan,” August 9, 2019, https://washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/08/09/irans-cooperation-with-taliban-could- affect-talks-us-withdrawal-afghanistan/; and Reuters, “In new claim, Pompeo says Iran has been working with Taliban to undermine Afghan peace effort,” January 7, 2020, https://nationalpost.com/news/world/in-new-claim-pompeo-says-iran-has-been-working-with- the-taliban-to-undermine-afghan-peace-efforts.
See “Statement from the National Security Advisor John Bolton,” May 5, 2019, https://www.whitehouse.gov/brieﬁngs-statements/statement-national-security-advisor- ambassador-john-bolton-2/.
See Tehran Times, “’Maximum pressure’ has produced 'maximum resistance,’ says Iran’s Araqchi,” September 23, 2019, https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/440423/Maximum-pressure-has-produced-maximum-resistance-says-Iran-s.
See Tamer El-Ghobashy, Michael Birnbaum and Carol Morello, “Iran announces it will stop complying with parts of landmark nuclear deal,” May 8, 2019, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/iran-to-take-steps-to-reduce-its-commitment-to- landmark-nuclear-deal/2019/05/07/90cc3b1c-70fe-11e9-9331-30bc5836f48e_story.html.
, and “Kremlin: Russia warned Iran against withdrawing from nuclear non-proliferation treaty,” May 30, 2019, https://uawire.org/kremlin-russia-warns-iran-not-to-withdraw-from- nuclear-non-proliferation-treaty.
See Michael Peel and Najmeh Bozorgmehr, “European power reject Iran 'ultimatums,’” https://www.ft.com/content/247236ba-7234-11e9-bf5c-6eeb837566c5.
For public remarks by Dunford along these lines, see Adam Twardowski, “At Brookings, Gen. Joseph Dunford comments on threats from China, Russia, North Korea and beyond,” June 4, 2019, https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2019/06/04/at-brookings-gen-joseph- dunford-comments-on-threats-from-russia-china-north-korea-and-beyond/.
See “Remarks by President Trump on Ending Surprise Medical Billing,” May 9, 2019, https://www.whitehouse.gov/brieﬁngs-statements/remarks-president-trump-ending-surprise- medical-billing/.
See, e.g., RFE/RL, “Saudi Arabia, U.A.E., Norway at U.N. Blame 'State Actor’ for May 12 Tanker Attacks,” June 9, 2019, https://www.rferl.org/a/saudi-arabia-uae-norway-blame-state- actor-tanker-attack/29985842.html.
See David A. Sanger and William J. Broad, “In a Tweet Taunting Iran, Trump Releases an Image Thought to Be Classiﬁed,” August 30, 2019, https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/30/world/middleeast/trump-iran-missile-explosion-satellite- image.html.
See Stephen Kalin and Rania El Gamal, Reuters, “Saudi oil facilities attacked, US sees threat in Iraq from Iran-backed forces,” May 14, 2019, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-saudi-oil-usa- iran/saudi-oil-facilities-attacked-us-sees-threat-in-iraq-from-iran-backed-forces- idUSKCN1SK0YM.
See “Remarks by President Trump Before Marine One Departure,” May 14, 2019, https://www.whitehouse.gov/brieﬁngs-statements/remarks-president-trump-marine-one- departure-42/.
This was a long-standing refrain. See Kimon de Greef and Palko Karasz, “Trump Cites False Claims of Widespread Attacks Against White Farmers in South Africa,” August 23, 2018, https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/23/world/africa/trump-south-africa-white-farmers.html.
See Alissa J. Rubin and Falih Hassan, “Rocket Hits Green Zone in Baghdad as Tensions Flare Between U.S. and Iran,” May 19, 2019, https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/19/world/middleeast/rocket-baghdad-greenzone.html.
See Reuters, “Iran’s Rouhani: Today’s situation isn’t suitable for talks; resistance is our only choice - IRNA,” May 21, 2019, https://uk.reuters.com/article/usa-iran-rouhni/irans-rouhani- todays-situation-isnt-suitable-for-talks-resistance-is-our-only-choice-irna-idUKL5N22X01X.
See Michelle Nichols, Lesley Wroughton, and Phil Stewart, “Exclusive: Iran’s Zarif belies Trump does not want war, but could be lured into conﬂict,” April 24, 2019, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-usa-exclusive/exclusive-irans-zarif-believes-trump-does- not-want-war-but-could-be-lured-into-conﬂict-idUSKCN1S02VK.
See Michael MacArthur Bosack, “Success or failure for Abe in Tehran?” June 18, 2019, https://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2019/06/18/commentary/japan-commentary/success- failure-abe-tehran/#.Xn97SIhKiF4.
See Reuters, “US blames Iran for helping Houthi rebels shoot down drone in Yemen,” June 16, 2019, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-attacks-usa-drone/us-blames-iran-for-helping- houthi-rebels-shoot-down-drone-in-yemen-idUSKCN1TH0LA.
See, e.g., Peter Baker et al., “Trump Undercuts Bolton on North Korea and Iran,” https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/28/us/politics/trump-john-bolton-north-korea-iran.html? searchResultPosition=3.
See “U.S. Central Command Statement on June 13 Limpet Mine Attack in the Gulf of Oman,” June 13, 2019, https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/STATEMENTS/Statements- View/Article/1875666/us-central-command-statement-on-june-13-limpet-mine-attack-in-the- gulf-of-oman/.
See ibid., which contains a link to the ﬁlm.
Trump’s view was widely shared. See e.g., Ishaan Tharoor, “Shinzo Abe’s mission to Iran ends in ﬂames,” June 14, 2019, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2019/06/14/shinzo-abes- mission-iran-ends-ﬂames/.
See Conor Finnegan, “Iran’s Ayatollah Khameini said he rejects Trump’s offer to talk,” June 13, 2019, https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/irans-ayatollah-khamenei-rejects-trumps-offer-talk/story? id=63687413.
Publicly available statistics make the same point, although varying depending on what time period is used to measure the imports. See, e.g., Reuters, “Factbox: Asia region is most dependent on Middle East crude oil, LNG supplies,” January 8, 2020, https://reuters.com/article/asia-mideast-oil-factbox/factbox-asia-region-is-most-dependent-on- middle-east-crude-oil-lng-supplies-idINKBN1Z71VW.
See Laurence Norman and Gordon Lubold, “Iran to Breach Limits of Nuclear Pact, as USto Send More Troops to Mideast,” https://www.wsj.com/articles/iran-to-breach-limits-of-nuclear-pact- putting-bid-to-save-deal-in-doubt-11560765015.
See Mark Landler, “Obama Says Iran Strike Is an Option, but Warns Israel,” March 3, 2012, https://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/03/world/middleeast/obama-says-military-option-on-iran-not- a-bluff.html.
See Tessa Berenson, “Exclusive: President Trump Calls Alleged Iranian Attack on Oil Tankers 'Very Minor,’” https://com/5608787/iran-oil-tanker-attack-very-minor/.
See Alissa J. Rubin, “2 Rockets Strike Oil Fields in Southern Iraq,” June 19, 2019, https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/19/world/middleeast/iraq-rocket-attacks-basra.html. https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/19/world/middleeast/iraq-rocket-attacks-basra.html.
See Bethan McKernan, “Iraq rocket attack: oil ﬁrms begin evacuating staff from Basra site,” June 19, 2019, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jun/19/iraq-rocket-attack-basra-injured- foreign-oil-companies.
Sarah Sanders issued a short statement that Trump had been briefed on the attack that evening. See Saudi Desalination Plant Struck by Missile from Yemen, S. Drone Shot Down-Reports,” June 20, 2019, http://sustg.com/saudi-desalination-plant-struck-by-missile-from-yemen-u-s- drone-shot-down-reports/.
See, g., Henry Fernandez, Fox News, “US navy drone shot down by Iranian missile cost $130M,” June 20, 2019, https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/us-navy-drone-shot-down- iranian-missile-cost.
See, e.g., Michael D. Shear, Eric Schmitt, Michael Crowley, and Maggie Haberman, “Strikes on Iran Approved by Trump, Then Abruptly Called Back,” June 20, 2019, https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/20/world/middleeast/iran-us-drone.html?smid=nytcore-ios- share and James LaPorta and Tom O’Connor, “Donald Trump Decided to Strike Iranian Missile System, Then Changed His Mind,” June 21, 2019, https://www.newsweek.com/us-military- strikes-iran-drone-1445116.
See, e.g., Peter Baker et al., “Urged to Launch an Attack, Trump Listened to the Skeptics Who Said It Would Be a Costly Mistake,” posted at https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/21/us/politics/trump-iran-strike.html.
CENTCOM also issued public statements. See, https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/STATEMENTS/Statements-View/Article/1881682/us-central- command-statement-iranians-shoot-down-us-drone/; and https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/STATEMENTS/Statements-View/Article/1882519/us-air- forces-central-command-statement-on-the-shoot-down-of-a-us-rq-4/.
As previously noted, estimates varied depending in part on what equipment each drone carried. Dunford’s cost citation here was within the range previously cited. Other public estimates were as high as $220 million. See,Lily Hay Newman, “The Drone Iran Shot Down Was a $220M Surveillance Monster,” June 20, 2019, https://www.wired.com/story/iran-global-hawk-drone- surveillance/.
CENTCOM released a map showing the location from which where it believed the Iranian SAM missiles had been ﬁred. See Amy McCullough, Jennifer-Leigh Oprihory, and Jennifer Hlad, “CENTCOM: Iranian SAM Shoots Down US Drone Over Strait of Hormuz,” June 20, 2019, https://www.airforcemag.com/centcom-iranian-sam-shoots-down-us-drone-over-strait-of- hormuz/.
Russia has an extensive military-sales-and-cooperation relationship with Iran, frequently involving train-and-assist elements. See, e.g., Michael Eisenstadt, “Russian Arms and technology Transfers to Iran: Policy Challenges for the United States,” https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2001-03/iran-nuclear-briefs/russian-arms technology-transfers- iranpolicy-challenges-united; and Maxim A. Suchkov, “Intel: How Russia is deepening military ties with Iran to counter the US,” June 30, 2019, https://www.al- monicom/pulse/originals/2019/07/intel-russia-deepening-military-ties-iran-counter-us.html.
CENTCOM issued a statement shortly after the attack on its development of “Operation Sentinel,” which was intended to employ naval patrols in and around the Gulf through a multilateral cooperative effort. See “U.S. Central Command Statement on Operation Sentinel,” July 19, 2019, https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/STATEMENTS/Statements- View/Article/1911282/us-central-command-statement-on-operation-sentinel/.
See Schwebel, Judge Stephen, Nicaragua vs. U.S., 1986 I.C.J. 14, 259 (June 27), quoted in “Draft Articles on State Responsibility-Comments of the Government of the United States of America”, U.S. State Department, http://www.state.gov/documents/organization/28993.pdf, March 1,
See, e.g., Michael D. Shear et al., “Strikes on Iran Approved by Trump, Then Abruptly Pulled Back,” https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/20/world/middleeast/iran-us-drone.html ; and Michael
Shear, et al., “Trump Says He Was 'Cocked and Loaded’ to Strike Iran, but Pulled Back,” June 21, 2019, https://www.nyt.com/2019/06/21/us/politics/trump-iran-attack.html.
See Peter Baker, Eric Schmitt, and Michael Crowley, “An Abrupt Move That Stunned Aides: Inside Trump’s Aborted Attack on Iran,” September 21, 2019, https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/21/us/politics/trump-iran-decision.html.
See Maya King, “Trump: Rand Paul to help with Iran negotiations,” July 19, 2019, https://www.politico.com/story/2019/07/19/rand-paul-iran-trump-1423779.
See “Remarks by President Trump Before Marine One Departure,” June 22, 2019, https://www.whitehouse.gov/brieﬁngs-statements/remarks-president-trump-marine-one- departure-49/.
See David E. Sanger and Ronen Bergman, “How Israel, in Dark of Night, Torched Its Way to Iran’s Nuclear Secrets,” July 15, 2018, https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/15/us/politics/iran- israel-mossad-nuclear.html.
See Reuters, “Chronology on Iran’s Nuclear Program,” August 8, 2019, https://www.nytimes.com/2005/08/08/international/chronology-of-irans-nuclear-program.html; AFP, “'Uranium particles’ detected at undeclared site in Iran: IAEA,” November 11, 2019, https://www.france24.com/en/20191111-uranium-particles-detected-at-undeclared-site-in-iran- iaea-1; and Alexander Ma, “Investigators found uranium particles at a secret facility in Iran, suggesting a further rejection of the nuclear deal,” November 12, 2019, https://businessinsider.com/iran-nuclear-watchdog-uranium-secret-facility-bbc-2019-11. Like any product of mining, uranium is processed mechanically and chemically in advance of actually being put to use, in uranium’s case, before it can be enriched. Milling separates uranium from the associated ore by chemical leeching, and subsequent reﬁnement produces U3O8, or yellowcake, a solid, which is how uranium is typically stored and shipped prior to actually being put to use within the nuclear fuel cycle. Before uranium can be enriched, it is converted chemically from a solid to a gas, usually UF6, before it can be injected into centrifuges. Of course, Israel knows for certain what form the uranium is in since it has the stolen documents, as does the IAEA, which has collected samples, but the likelihood is that the uranium at Turquzabad was yellowcake, rather than something further along in the nuclear fuel cycle.
See RFE/RL, “Israel Accuses Iran Of Having 'Secret Atomic Warehouse’ Near Tehran,” September 28, 2018, https://www.rferl.org/a/israeli-prime-minister-netanyahu-accuses-iran- having-secret-atomic-warehouse-outside-tehran/29514107.html.
See U.S. Department of the Treasury, Treasury Designates Iran’s Foreign Minister Javad Zarif for Acting for the Supreme Leader of Iran, July 31, 2019, https://home.treasury.gov/news/press- releases/sm749.
See p. 64 in https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/DCPD-2019DIGEST/pdf/DCPD- 2019DIGEST.pdf.
See note 50 above; and Simon Newton, “Operation Sentinel: The Naval Taskforce Protecting Gulf Shipping,” November 15, 2019, https://www.forces.net/news/operation-sentinel-naval- taskforce-protecting-gulf-shipping
See, e.g., “’Maximum pressure’ has produced 'maximum resistance,’ says Iran’s Araqchi,” September 23, 2019, https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/440423/Maximum-pressure-has- produced-maximum-resistance-says-Iran-s
See Reuters, “Macron says he warned Iran’s Rouhani about breaking nuclear commitments,” June 27, 2019, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-nuclear-france/macron-says-he-warned- irans-rouhani-about-breaking-nuclear-commitments-idUSKCN1TS0YU.
See note 54
See “Remarks of President Trump Before Boarding Marine One,” July 19, 2019, https://www.whitehouse.gov/brieﬁngs-statements/remarks-president-trump-marine-one- departure-53/
See Mosheh Gaines et al., “U.S. Marines jam an Iranian drone in the Gulf, destroying it,” July 18, 2019, https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/trump-says-u-s-navy-ship-shot- down-iranian-drone-n1031451.
See p. 75 in https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/DCPD-2019DIGEST/pdf/DCPD- 2019DIGEST.pdf.
Peter Bergen, Trump and His Generals, Penguin Press, New York, 2019, 69-70.
See Helene Cooper, “American Military Drone Shot Down Over Yemen,” August 21, 2019, https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/21/us/politics/american-drone-yemen.html
See David Halbﬁnger, “Israel Says It Struck Iranian 'Killer Drones’ in Syria,” August 24, 2019, https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/24/world/middleeast/israel-says-it-struck-iranian-killer- drones-in-syria.html.
See John Irish and “Parisa Hafezi, “France Pushes for $15 billion credit line plan for Iran, if US allows it,” September 3, 2019, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-usa-france/france-pushes- 15-billion-credit-line-plan-for-iran-if-us-allows-it-idUSKCN1VO1AF.
See, e.g., Peter Baker, “Iranian Ofﬁcial Makes Surprise Appearance on Sidelines of G7 Summit,” https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/25/world/europe/g7-iran-trump-biarritz.html.

فصل سیزدهم: از مأموریت ضدتروریستی افغانستان تا جلسۀ قریب‌الوقوع کمپ دیوید

The notion of a continuing Afghanistan counterterrorism platform was basic at the outset of the Trump Administration, and had been for many years. See Brian Dodwell and Don Rassler, “A View from the CT Foxhole: General John Nicholson, Commander, Resolute Support and U.S. Forces-Afghanistan,” February, 2017, https://ctc.usma.edu/a-view-from-the-ct-foxhole-general- john-w-nicholson-commander-resolute-support-and-u-s-forces-afghanistan/.
The prepublication review process has insisted that I insert the following note: “In February/March 2020, the United States signed an agreement with the Taliban, but what follows in this chapter is the policy debate while I was National Security Advisor in ”
See Bolton, Surrender Is Not an Option, pp. 85-87.
See Ken Bredemeier, “US: No Cooperation with ICC Probe of Alleged Afghan War Crimes,” https://www.voanews.com/usa/us-no-cooperation-icc-probe-alleged-afghan-war-crimes.
This exchange with Merkel, somewhat embellished from time to time, was a staple in Trump’s repertoire of exchanges with foreign leaders. It would arise again in the Ukraine context, as the next chapter
See Rebecca Kheel, “Trump: US to keep 8,600 troops in Afghanistan after Taliban deal,” August 29, 2019, https://thehill.com/policy/defense/459281-trump-us-to-drawdown-to-8600-troops-in- afghanistan.
A recording of the full interview is found at https://radio.foxnews.com/2019/08/29/president-trump-talks-china-trade-afghanistan-and-fox- news-with-brian-kilmeade-on-fox-news-radio/.
See Kimberly Dozier, “Exclusive: Secretary of State Pompeo Declines to Sign Risky Afghan Peace Deal,” https://time.com/5668034/pompeo-afghanistan-peace-deal/.
See Phil Stewart and Jason Lange, Reuters, “Trump say he cancelled peace talks with Taliban over attack,” September 7, 2019, https://ru.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN1VS0MX.
See Pamela Constable, and Siobhán O’Grady, “Afghanistan’s Ghani to visit Washington as peace deal limps and violence surges,” September 6, 2019, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_paciﬁc/afghanistans-ghani-to-travel-to-washington- as-peace-deal-limps-ahead-and-violence-surges/2019/09/06/215e1c5e-d07c-11e9-a620-html.
See “Remarks by President Trump, Vice President Pence, and Members of the Coronavirus Task Force in Press Conference,” February 29, 2020, https://www.whitehouse.gov/brieﬁngs- statements/remarks-president-trump-vice-president-pence-members-coronavirus-task-force- press-conference-2/.

فصل چهاردهم: پایان چکامه

Groysman had made similar comments previously, for example in October, 2017, remarks to committees of Canada’s House of Commons in Ottawa: “The international community must continue to enforce sanctions and the stiffest penalties possible in order to dissuade Russian President Vlad-imir Putin from any further aggression—and from repeating Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea in other Eastern European states.'This should be unbearable for them,’ he urged.” See Amanda Connolly, “Ukrainian PM urges 'unbearable’ consequences for Russian aggression,” https://ipolitics.ca/2017/10/31/ukrainian-pm-urges-unbearable-consequences-for- russian-aggression/. See also the June 26, 2018, op-ed by Danish Prime Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen and Groysman, entitled “A new Ukraine rising,” https://com/opinion/142167: “It is our hope, that the rising of a reformed new Ukraine will demonstrate to Russia that 19th century aggression will not be tolerated nor prove itself worthwhile in our 21st century Europe.” See also “National Security Advisor, Ambas-sador John Bolton’s Press Conference at Ukrainian Crisis Media Center (UCMC),” https://ua.usembassy.gov/national-security-advisor-ambassador-john-boltons-press-conference- at-ukrainian-crisis-media-center-ucmc/.
This proposed legislation was already the subject of public debate in Ukraine. See Andrew Kramer, “Ukraine, After Naval Clash with Russia, Considers Martial Law,” https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/25/world/europe/ukraine-russia-kerch-strait.html.
See Reuters, “Merkel expressed concern about situation in Ukraine in call with Poroshenko: spokesman,” November 28, 2018, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ukraine-crisis-russia- germany/merkel-expressed-concern-aboutsituation-in-ukraine-in-call-with-poroshenko- spokesman-idUSKCN1NV22U.
See, “Canada led joint G7 statement condemning Russian aggression in Ukraine, says Freeland,” November 30, 2018, https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2018/11/30/canada-led-joint-g7- statement-condemning-russian-aggression-in-ukraine-says-freeland.html.
See, Andrew Osborn and Anton Zverev, “European politicians call for new sanctions on Russia over Ukraine,” November 27, 2018, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ukraine-crisis-russia- germany/european-politicians-call-for-new-sanctions-on-russia-over-ukraine- idUSKCN1NW0WW.
When the Russian criminal case was ﬁled shortly thereafter, all the elements of the Russian theory, described in the text, went on the public record. See Patrick Reevell. “Russia brings captured Ukrainian sailors to court,” https://abcnews.go.com/International/russia-bringing- captured-ukrainian-sailors-court/story?id=59440311; Patrick Reevell, “Russia extends detention of captured Ukrainian sailors,” https://abcnews.go.com/International/russia-brings-captured- ukrainian-sailors-court/story?id=60398214, and Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, “Russian Court Jails Captured Ukrainian Sailors for Two Months,” https://www.rferl.org/a/west-rallies- behind-ukraine-calls-on-russia-release-detained-sailors-kerch-azov/29623124.html.
See “Telephone conversation with US President Donald Trump,” http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/60469. A subsequent press report referred to Russians’ knowledge of Zelensky: “members of [Zelensky’s] foreign policy team want to move the battleﬁeld of ideas away from Ukraine right into Russia, taking advantage of Zelensky’s long experience appealing to Russians with his mostly lowbrow, sometimes raunchy, comedy shows and movies. His comedic work was widely seen in Russia.” Andrew E. Kramer, “In Ukraine, a Rival to Putin Rises,” https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/04/world/europe/ukraine- president-putin-russia.html?searchResultPosition=1.
See Kenneth Vogel, “Rudy Giuliani Plans Ukraine Trip for Inquiries That Could Help Trump,” https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/09/us/politics/giuliani-ukraine-trump.html.
Trump frequently referred to this Merkel statement that Germany would not reach the 2014 NATO agreement that its members’ defense spending would reach 2 percent of GDP by 2024 until 2030. At the June 2018 NATO Summit in Brussels, for example, Trump complained publicly about the German position: “Germany’s plan to increase its defence expenditure to the Nato target of 2% of GDP by 2030 was not good enough, Trump said. 'They could do it tomorrow,’ he added.” Ewen MacAskill, “Angele Merkel hits back at Donald Trump at Nato summit,” https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/jul/11/nato-summit-donald-trump-says- germany-is-captive-of-russians. Chacellor Merkel has herself publicly mentioned the 2030 date for Germany, rather than NATO’s 2024 target. See Guy Chazan, “Merkel warns Europe can’t defend itself without Nato,” https://www.ft.com/content/4a208660-10f8-11ea-a225- db2f231cfeae.
Trump made essentially this same point in the July 25, 2019, telephone call with Zelensky. See
See Matthias Williams, “Ukraine’s sacked ﬁnance minister says no will in cabinet for gas price hike,” June 8,2018, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ukraine-danylyuk/ukraines-sacked- ﬁnance-minister-says-no-will-in-cabinet-for-gas-price-hike-idUSKCN1J4288.
See Julie Hirschfeld Davis and Mark Mazzetti, “Highlights of Mueller’s Testimony to Congress,” https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/24/us/politics/mueller-testimony.html.
See Peter Baker, “'We Absolutely Could Not Do That’: When Seeking Foreign Help Was Out of the Question,” https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/06/us/politics/trump-foreign-inﬂuence.html? searchResultPosition=3.
See the DoJ press release announcing the indictment, https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/turkish- bank-charged-manhattan-federal-court-its-participation-multibillion-dollar-iranian.
See “Senior Ukrainian Security Ofﬁcial Quits,” https://www.rferl.org/a/senior-ukrainian-security- ofﬁcial-quits/30187540.html.
See, Polino Sinovets and Oleksii Izhak, “Ukraine’s Position on the INF Treaty Suspension,” May, 2019, https://www.researchgate.net/publiation/337161190_Ukraine’s_Position_on_the_INF_Treaty_Su spension.
See https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/10/22/us/politics/william-taylor-ukraine- testimohtml for Taylor’s written testimony; for a news report, see Michael D. Shear et al., “Ukraine Envoy Testiﬁes Trump Linked Military Aid to Investigations,” https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/22/us/trump-impeachment-ukraine.html? action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage.
See Yaroslav Troﬁmov, “A Russian Ally’s Solo Course Alters Western Calculations,” https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-russian-allys-solo-course-alters-western-calculations- 11572958804?mod=searchresults&page=1&pos=1.
See, e.g., Editorial Board, “Trump tries to force Ukraine to meddle in the 2020 election,” https://washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/is-trump-strong-arming-ukraines- new-president-for-political-gain/2019/09/05/4eb239b0-cffa-11e9-8c1c- 7c8ee785b855_story.html.
See, e.g., Greg Miller et al., “Giuliani pursued shadow Ukraine agenda as key foreign policy ofﬁcials were sidelined,” found at https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/giuliani- pursued-shadow-ukraine-agenda-as-key-foreign-policy-ofﬁcials-were- sidelined/2019/09/24/ee18aaec-deec-11e9-be96-6adb81821e90_story.html.
See, e.g., Patricia Zengerle, Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-ukraine/trump- administration-reinstates-military-aid-for-ukraine-idUSKCN1VX213.

فصل پانزدهم: ختم کلام

See Karen DeYoung and Josh Dawsey, “Bolton book roils Washington as onetime allies turn on Trump’s former national security adviser,” https://www.washingtonpost.com/national- security/bolton-book-roils-washington-as-onetime-allies-turn-on-trumps-former-national- security-adviser/2020/01/27/f8ab83d8-4145-11ea-b503-2b077c436617_story.html.
“Remarks by President Trump, Vice President Pence, and Members of the Coronavirus Task Force in Press Brieﬁng,” April 13, 2020, whitehouse.gov/brieﬁngs-statements/remarks-president- trump-vice-president-pence-members-coronavirus-task-force-press-brieﬁng-25/.
“Remarks by President Trump, Vice President Pence, and Members of the Coronavirus Task Force in Press Brieﬁng, April 15, 2020, whitehouse.gov/brieﬁngs-statements/remarks- president-trump-vice-president-pence-members-coronavirus-task-force-press-brieﬁng-26/.
“We’re going to try and block the publication of the book,” Trump reportedly said at luncheon of network television anchors on February 4, See Josh Dawsey, Tom Hamburger, and Carol
Leonnig, “Trump wants to block Bolton’s book, claiming most conversations are classiﬁed,” https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-wants-to-block-boltons-book-claiming-all- conversations-are-classiﬁed/2020/02/21/6a4f4b34-54d1-11ea-9e47-59804be1dcfb_story.html.
The basic document is the “Classiﬁed Information Nondisclosure Agreement,” Standard Form 312 (Rev. 7-2013), which I signed on April 5, 2019, and the “Sensitive Compartmented Information Nondisclosure Agreement,” Form 4414 (Rev. 12-2013), the ﬁrst of which I also signed on April 5, 2019. There was never any claim that any material in my manuscript implicated information governed by this second
Colin Powell, with Joseph Persico, My American Journey, Random House, New York, 1995.
James A. Baker, III, with Thomas M. DeFrank, The Politics of Diplomacy: Revolution, War and Peace 1989–1992, P. Putnam’s Sons, New York, 1995.
Book Review of Duty: Memoirs of a Secretary at War, by Robert Gates, American Review (Australia), May, 2014, Number 16, Page 54, reprinted at https://www.algemeiner.com/2014/04/24/robert-gates-memoir-is-a-jaw-dropping-read-review/.

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شب حدود ۹:۳۰ تماس گرفتند و اطلاع دادند ایران یک پهپاد دیگر را هم سرنگون کرده. این یکی پهپاد گلوبال‌هاوک بود و روی تنگهٔ هرمز ساقط شده بود. ژنرال دانفورد رئیس ستاد مشترک نیروهای مسلح می‌گفت زدن گلوبال‌هاوک با موارد سابق تفاوت کیفی دارد. این مورد به نابودی یکی از دارایی‌های امریکا انجامیده بود که ۱۴۶میلیون دلار قیمت داشت. دانفورد پیشنهاد داد به سه پایگاه در طول ساحل ایران حمله کنیم. در نهایت بر سر نابود کردن آن سه پایگاه توافق کردیم. دانفورد اعلام کرد که حمله در سیاهی شب انجام خواهد گرفت. ترامپ پرسید حمله کِی اتفاق خواهد افتاد. دانفورد گفت ۹ شب به وقت واشینگتن.
تصمیم ما سه ویژگی مهم داشت: هدف‌های فعال نظامی را می‌زدیم نه اهداف نمادین را، داخل خاک ایران را مورد حمله قرار می‌دادیم که خط قرمز ایرانی‌ها بود و در نهایت اینکه اهدافی را می‌زدیم که احتمالا تلفات انسانی داشت.

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فصل اول: قدم زدن در مسیری طولانی به سوی اتاقی در گوشۀ بال غربی

فصل دوم: فریاد بزن «امان ندهید!» و سگان جنگ را رها کن

فصل سوم: آمریکا خلاص می‌شود

فصل چهارم: فلاخن سنگاپور

فصل پنجم: داستان سه شهر: نشست‌های بروکسل، لندن، و هلسینکی

فصل ششم: ناکام گذاشتن روسیه

فصل هفتم: ترامپ دنبال دروازۀ سوریه و افغانستان می‌گردد، اما نمی‌تواند آن را پیدا کند!

فصل هشتم: آنجا که آشوب، سبک زندگی باشد

فصل نهم: ونزوئلای آزاد

فصل دهم: غرش اژدهای چین

فصل یازدهم: ورود به هتل هیلتون هانوی، خروج از آن و بازی در پانمونجوم

فصل دوازدهم: ترامپ ابتدا راهش را گم می‌کند و بعد هم شهامتش را

فصل سیزدهم: از مأموریت ضدتروریستی افغانستان تا جلسۀ قریب‌الوقوع کمپ دیوید

فصل چهاردهم: پایان چکامه

فصل پانزدهم: ختم کلام

اتاقی که در آن اتفاق افتاد

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فصل اول: قدم زدن در مسیری طولانی به سوی اتاقی در گوشۀ بال غربی

فصل دوم: فریاد بزن «امان ندهید!» و سگان جنگ را رها کن

فصل سوم: آمریکا خلاص می‌شود

فصل چهارم: فلاخن سنگاپور

فصل پنجم: داستان سه شهر: نشست‌های بروکسل، لندن، و هلسینکی

فصل ششم: ناکام گذاشتن روسیه

فصل هفتم: ترامپ دنبال دروازۀ سوریه و افغانستان می‌گردد، اما نمی‌تواند آن را پیدا کند!

فصل هشتم: آنجا که آشوب، سبک زندگی باشد

فصل نهم: ونزوئلای آزاد

فصل دهم: غرش اژدهای چین

فصل یازدهم: ورود به هتل هیلتون هانوی، خروج از آن و بازی در پانمونجوم

فصل دوازدهم: ترامپ ابتدا راهش را گم می‌کند و بعد هم شهامتش را

فصل سیزدهم: از مأموریت ضدتروریستی افغانستان تا جلسۀ قریب‌الوقوع کمپ دیوید

فصل چهاردهم: پایان چکامه

فصل پانزدهم: ختم کلام

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